Styles

Ahh… the classic wrestler vs. striker matchup. Of course, adjusted for 2026 standards of what striker vs. wrestler means. We’ve seen Garry grapple and he’s got a sub under his belt. We’ve also seen Makhachev get some knockouts but we know what their specialties are.

Makhachev is a wrestling-led control fighter who uses measured pressure, striking and hand fighting to deny space and get to the clinch. He is a master of chaining positions together even if his opponent denies the first attempt.

Garry is a long-range striker whose game is built around keeping opponents at the end of his kicks and straight punches, then exiting before they can return fire.

Garry’s challenge is to stop Makhachev from chaining one position into the next. Otherwise, he could spend most of the fight defending instead of building meaningful offense of his own.

Tale of the Tape

Makhachev gives away five inches in height and four inches in reach. Garry is also six years younger. Makhachev has the much deeper title-fight record and has won 16 straight UFC fights.

Makhachev’s five-fight run includes two full championship decisions, two submissions and a first-round knockout. All five of Garry’s most recent fights reached the scorecards. His recent performances have been built around winning rounds through movement, distance control and steady output.

Career rates come from the UFCStats profiles for Makhachev and Garry. Control averages and percentages were calculated from recorded UFC control time and total fight duration. Makhachev’s aggregate control time is also listed in the UFC record book.

The numbers describe two different kinds of fights.

Garry lands almost twice as many significant strikes per minute, but he also absorbs almost twice as many. Makhachev’s lower striking output partly reflects how much time he spends clinching, controlling opponents and working on the ground.

The control stats make that difference clearer. Makhachev has spent just over half of his UFC fight time in control, averaging 5:38 per appearance. Garry averages 1:43, and nearly 40% of his UFC control time came against Michael Page. Control is a regular part of Makhachev’s game. For Garry, it has depended more on the opponent and the circumstances of the fight.

Height & Reach

Garry’s reach is most useful in open space, where he can jab, kick and move before Makhachev reaches a leg, hips, or the clinch.

That reach lets him attack from farther out, while his long arms help him post on Makhachev’s shoulders, dig for underhooks and threaten knees when Makhachev changes levels.

Makhachev has beaten longer opponents before. Charles Oliveira has a listed reach of 74 inches, while Dan Hooker is listed at 75. Makhachev submitted both, though neither was a 6’3” welterweight who moves like Garry. 😂

Garry’s height may help him create separation. His reach advantage matters most while he still has room to move behind him.

Cage craft

Garry wants to fight at long range, but he probably does not want to spend much time near the outer edge of the Octagon.

I’ll be keeping an eye on the “warning track,” as some call it. Once Garry moves beyond it, there is little room left to retreat. Makhachev can use the threat of strikes and level changes to keep him backing up, then close the remaining distance at the fence.

The most important part of Garry’s movement may be how quickly he changes direction. Against Geoff Neal, he deliberately showed one exit before cutting back the other way, an approach he said was influenced by studying NFL wide receivers. He wanted Neal to commit his feet in one direction before Garry moved in another.

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That could matter more against Makhachev than speed alone. If Garry retreats along one line, Makhachev can keep following him toward the fence. A sharp change of direction may force Makhachev to turn and adjust his pressure, giving Garry a moment to recover the center or strike as Makhachev follows.

Those cuts also create moments Makhachev could try to time. Garry has to shift his weight and bring his feet underneath him before changing direction. If Makhachev reads that movement, the exit could become an opening to attack the leg or get to the clinch.

The center gives Garry more room to defend. If Makhachev reaches his legs or ties up, Garry can sprawl, turn or circle away without immediately running into the cage. He also has more room to frame on Makhachev’s shoulders or upper body, keep their hips apart, COUNTER and then move off at an angle. Once Makhachev gets past those frames and settles into the clinch, the extra space matters much less.

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Jack Della Maddalena showed the limits of holding the center. Makhachev took him down in open space and controlled him for most of the fight. JDM offered no post/frame, counter, angle, sprawl or anything in this example. He shells up and moves back in a straight line. Completely ill-prepared and it’s only the first round.

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JDM had room around him, but Makhachev often reached him before he could use it. Once Makhachev gained control, JDM could not create enough space to stand and reset.

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The center only helps if Garry acts before Makhachev closes distance. He still has to recognize the entry, establish his frames and move. For a more in-depth understanding of takedown defense and frames, I highly recommend watching BJJ Scout’s video on Conor McGregor.

Dustin Poirier had some of his better moments against Makhachev when the fight remained in open space.

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Before their fight, Matt Brown said Poirier needed to “keep the center of the octagon”.

Poirier’s coach, Mike Brown, offered the same advice after Round 1, saying, “You cannot back up to the wall. No matter what happens, you need to fight him right in the center. Whether he hits you or not, you cannot back up. That’s how he took you down on the wall.”

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Garry may still use the fence to help him stand if he is taken down near it. That is different from being driven there while Makhachev already controls his hips or upper body. In that situation, the fence is more likely to help Makhachev keep him in place.

Garry probably needs to hold the center in short stretches, score at range and leave on an angle. He cannot stand still, but he also cannot keep giving ground in a straight line.

Makhachev vs. The Reach

Makhachev does not have to beat Garry’s reach with his hands alone. Low kicks and body attacks can interrupt his movement, while level-change feints may make him pause, shift his weight or lower his hands. Any of those reactions could give Makhachev a moment to close the distance.

That was clear against JDM. Makhachev attacked his lead leg throughout the fight, then repeatedly timed his takedowns before JDM could settle into his boxing.

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JDM had a three-inch reach advantage, but Makhachev completed four takedowns, recorded 19:10 of control and held him to 18 significant strikes over five rounds.

Garry may present a harder version of that problem because he is taller and can change direction suddenly instead of circling at one steady pace. Makhachev may only need to catch him during one of those changes, after a kick or as he finishes the right hand. Those are the moments when Garry could be square, heavy on one leg or unable to move away immediately.

Much of the work may happen before Makhachev ever reaches his hips. The low kicks, hand fighting, pressure and feints are what create the entry.

Stances

Garry stands orthodox and Makhachev stands southpaw, which leaves both men facing an open side. Garry’s right hand and right knee have a direct line toward Makhachev, while Makhachev’s left hand and left kick travel back through the same space. The position of their lead feet matters because whoever gets his foot to the outside has a cleaner lane for the rear hand and rear kick.

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Garry will want that angle for the right hand, but Makhachev can use the same battle to set up his left straight, his left kick and his entries into the clinch. Garry’s height also puts his right knee in a dangerous position whenever Makhachev steps forward or changes levels. A naked entry would put Makhachev directly on that line, so he may need to draw Garry’s attention elsewhere first.

That is where the threat of wrestling begins to shape the striking. If Garry becomes too focused on stopping the takedown and/or blocking the inside body kick, he may lower his hands or hesitate long enough for Makhachev to bring the left kick upstairs, as he did in the second Volkanovski fight. However, against Ian Garry a head kick seems much less likely because of his height.

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Makhachev can also occupy Garry’s lead hand by touching, pulling or knocking the jab aside. That can briefly shorten the reach gap and give him a clearer route to the body, the clinch or the left hand.

Collar tie

One way Makhachev has handled opponents entering on him is the double collar tie. He has used it in open space to control the head, break posture and land knees. The opponent may pull away or give ground to recover his stance, allowing Makhachev to follow and move the exchange toward the cage.

That happened repeatedly against Volkanovski. Makhachev caught the double collar tie as Volkanovski came forward, then used it to land knees and interrupt his offense. Later in the fight, he used the tie to set up a trip that carried the exchange into his fence work.

Garry’s height could make this difficult.

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His head sits farther away, and if Makhachev reaches from too far out, Garry has room to frame, fire an uppercut or bring up a knee. Makhachev will likely need to hide the entry behind hand fighting, pressure or a level-change feint.

Once Makhachev gets the tie, Garry’s height can work against him. Pulling the head forward breaks his posture and takes away the distance he needs for his straight punches and kicks. Garry then has to fight his way upright, and that effort may carry him backward toward the fence. As Feño explains in our exchange above, the clinch can lead to other positions.

In open space, Garry has room to work an arm inside, raise his posture and circle away, but near the cage, those exits narrow.

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Wrestling & Grappling

Garry’s 80 percent takedown defense is a strong number. UFC opponents have completed only six of the 30 takedowns they have attempted against him. Fifteen of his 24 successful defenses came against Shavkat Rakhmonov and Belal Muhammad.

The number still tells only part of the story. Rakhmonov went two for 10 on takedowns but controlled Garry for 11:41.

Muhammad failed on all seven of his attempts and still spent 3:35 in control. Garry often stayed on his feet, but that did not always get him out of the clinch or back into open space.

That matters because Makhachev often does his best work after contact has already been made. He can stay on a single leg, move into a body lock, turn Garry toward the fence or keep working until another opening appears. Garry may stop the first attack and still lose a long stretch of the round trying to separate.

Dustin Poirier showed how difficult that can become. He stopped several attempts, returned to his feet and made Makhachev work for almost five rounds.

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Makhachev still completed five takedowns and eventually submitted him with a D’Arce choke in the fifth. The defenses kept Poirier in the fight, but each escape required more work, and Makhachev kept finding another position to attack.

Alexander Volkanovski made those exchanges harder for Makhachev. He stayed balanced through scrambles, fought the hands and often turned back into him. Even then, Makhachev completed four takedowns and recorded 7:37 of control in their first fight. Volkanovski showed that strong defensive grappling can slow Makhachev down without necessarily keeping him from taking large parts of a round.

Garry has shown some of the same composure. He defended eight of Rakhmonov’s 10 takedown attempts and found his way to the back during a fifth-round scramble. That back take is useful evidence that he can remain calm when a position begins to break down.

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Most of the time, Garry will probably want those scrambles to end with separation. A reversal or back take could still create offense, but staying attached also gives Makhachev time to rebuild control. Defending the takedown may be only one part of getting back to the fight Garry wants.

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Conditioning

Both men have produced some of their best work late, and both have had late rounds where parts of their game became less reliable.

Makhachev submitted Poirier at 2:42 of the fifth after landing five takedowns and 88 significant strikes. Against JDM, he kept up a wrestling-heavy pace for the full 25 minutes and recorded 19:10 of control. The JDM fight matters here because it was Makhachev’s first UFC appearance at welterweight, and the move up did not appear to hurt his ability to maintain long stretches of control.

The first Volkanovski fight wasn’t like that. Volkanovski outlanded Makhachev 20–8 in the fifth, defended his late takedown attempts and finished the round striking from top position. Makhachev was still working, but his entries were having less success and Volkanovski was finding more room. Fatigue may have played a part, although the pace of the scrambles and Volkanovski’s adjustments are difficult to separate from it.

Garry has also shown that he can remain dangerous after a difficult fight. He spent long periods dealing with Rakhmonov’s clinch pressure and wrestling, then took his back and threatened a choke in the fifth. It was probably Garry’s best position of the fight and came after four rounds in which he had been made to defend far more than usual.

The Carlos Prates fight looked different because Garry still landed 28 significant strikes in the fifth, but his movement became less reliable as Prates kept pressing forward. In that round, Garry went 0-for-6 on takedowns, gave up 1:01 of control and absorbed 12 significant ground strikes.

Garry later said he was not hurt and remained conscious throughout the exchange. Whatever the case, his movement and choices looked desperate in my opinion. That performance is not enough to say he has poor cardio. He did not stop working, but obviously his ability to move and make good decisions declined. The fifth round is gonna be interesting if they make it there.

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Rumors & Reputations

Javier Mendez has said Makhachev may not even need to take Garry down. Most likely a bluff but I think what he’s trying to say is they have several plans based off how Ian Garry approaches the fight. They need to make some reads before committing to anything specific. In fact, this sounds oddly familiar…

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I interpret this as: Makhachev does not need to force the takedown. The threat of wrestling can still affect Garry’s reactions.

Of course, there is still a risk in giving Garry too much time at range. He is longer, faster and comfortable building rounds through volume and accumulation. Makhachev may not need to take him down the entire fight, but he’ll definitely want Garry reacting to the feints.

For Ian Garry, it’s worth noting a few things he’s done in preparation for Islam Makhachev:

• He flew to Georgia to get some work in against southpaw wrestlers.
• According to Diego Lima, Garry’s MMA coach, he’s had two months of opponent-specific prep for Makhachev; this does not include his trip to Georgia.
• Training with Chucky Olives and Demian Maia. “intensive camp specifically focused on the grappling exchanges they expect against Makhachev.”
• From what I can gather he also traveled to Spain (Maia), did some work in England, and is finishing up sparring in Dublin.
• His cornermen for this fight are reported to be: Diego Lima, John Hathaway, Demian Maia, Paulo Mauricio Strauch

Pick & Prediction

Personally, I find this fight so intriguing. I love a classic style matchup, and this one fits perfectly.

At the time of writing this, Ian Garry is nearly a 3-to-1 underdog on most books. Oddschecker has Garry at +290 and Makhachev at -340, while BestFightOdds shows Garry sitting between roughly +250 and +303 depending on the book. Polymarket currently gives Garry a 26% chance of winning, which converts to roughly +285 in American-odds terms.

Polymarket has Fight Goes the Distance at 44% and End Inside the Distance at 56%. FanDuel has Makhachev by decision at +135 and Makhachev by submission at +210. Garry by decision is sitting at +450.

I think it’s safe to say that Makhachev by decision or submission is the likely route this fight goes if we’re judging by the odds. Garry by decision at +450 on FanDuel is a very real possibility for Ian Garry. Garry winning by TKO/KO is something I see as less likely but still a real possibility.

There is poison to pick from if you choose to do so.

The reason I drill into posting and framing so much in this breakdown is because I think that is his first line of defense and his best opportunity to counter Islam Makhachev. It is similar but different from the path Conor McGregor tried to take with Khabib and other wrestlers.

We saw glimpses of these tactics from Garry against Belal Muhammad.

Garry reading entries and choosing to prioritize posting off the head and shoulder, extending that frame to keep the hips safe at the risk of the entry not even being a takedown, trusting in his chin and slips to then counter with combinations and exit out of range—that is the whole thing here.

I have no question in my mind that Makhachev will be landing punches as well because Garry has been hit by every one of his shorter southpaw opponents in the past, but it’s up to Garry not to let Makhachev stack those punches on top of control time.

Garry will need sustained volume and the punches landed will need to be more impactful than they ever have before.

I see both these guys battering each other’s lead leg. How dedicated will Garry be to the knee/thigh stomps he often goes to against someone like Makhachev?

Garry had zero respect for Belal Muhammad’s wrestling abilities and stomped him freely throughout that entire fight. Belal officially completed zero takedowns, and Garry won by unanimous decision.

Fascinating matchup, but for now, I’m rolling with the fighter who has a higher likelihood of dictating where this fight takes place: Islam Makhachev.

However, as fight week progresses and I try to catch subtle hints of tactics, game plans, and, of course, both of their general health going into the fight, I may make a switch on my official pick.

Betting-wise? I don’t see any reason not to lay down a couple of bones on the Ian Garry moneyline. In my eyes, I see Garry as a 2-to-1 underdog so getting him at 3-to-1 seems like a good opportunity to take a small risk.

Pick: Islam Makhachev by DEC.

I reserve the right to change my pick prior to the fight, but all official picks are recorded on Verdict MMA.

p.s.

My side prediction is we may see a lot of eye pokes from Ian Garry. Not intentional ones but because he’ll be looking to frame. This happened against Belal Muhammad but I anticipate it being much more prevalent in this fight. The real question is, will the ref take a point?

My picks are live on Verdict:
https://verdictmma.com/event/pfl-ny2026-nurmagomedov-vs-colgan

Post-Event Recap

Fights: Not the most exciting night of fights, but they were pretty competitive for the most part. The main event delivered, while Dakota Ditcheva’s performance may be viewed as lackluster by many. It certainly wasn’t a highlight-reel performance.

Production: Definitely not a small-show, regional-level production, but there were some strange choices. Jake Paul was met with boos at every opportunity the crowd got. They kept dragging him out for interviews and having him stand alongside fighters after their bouts. Not good.

They also held long-form interviews with the brass during fighter walkouts multiple times, and the interviews were irrelevant to the fighters who were actually coming out.

The pacing was really good, and we were out by 7:50 p.m. CST. My only other complaint is that two camera operators had trouble framing the fighters because they were zoomed in too far. The type of shot they were attempting is not uncommon in gold-standard UFC production, but you could tell they were either inexperienced or unfamiliar with the sport.

They would also use an ’80s-style close-up of a damaged leg and then slowly zoom out to reveal the other fighter. That might work in a product showcase, but not in a live sporting event.

These are pretty petty complaints on my part, but I think they are fair criticisms. Overall, I give the event a 6/10.

Main Card (3/4 PICKS CORRECT)

Lightweight Championship: Usman Nurmagomedov vs. Archie Colgan (PICK: USMAN NURMAGOMEDOV) ✅

R1: After a lackluster co-main, let’s see what this one has to offer. Both meet in the center. Frequent kicks right away from Nurmagomedov. Colgan is pressuring, though, with feints and jabs. Colgan just fired off a right hand that nearly landed. Keep an eye out for that, but Nurmagomedov landed a couple of shots. Side kick to the body from the Russian. Inside leg kick. Outside leg kick. Jab lands. Colgan crashes forward, but nothing comes of it. Back to center, and the Russian starts firing kicks again. Colgan has a mouse under his left eye. Body shot from Colgan, and he slips. Strong front kick from Nurmagomedov. Again. And again. Colgan is red below the sternum. Two more front kicks and a jab. Left hook from Colgan knocks Nurmagomedov off balance. Back to the feet. Nurmagomedov lands—was that a question-mark kick!? Colgan is wobbled, and a left hook drops him. Colgan gets back up, eats an uppercut, and falls back down. Another uppercut lands while he’s on his knees. THE REF STOPS IT.

RESULT: USMAN NURMAGOMEDOV WINS VIA ROUND 1 KNOCKOUT

Women’s Flyweight: Dakota Ditcheva vs. Denise Kielholtz (PICK: DAKOTA DITCHEVA) ✅

R1: They meet in the center. They’re doing the leg-kick dance at each other. Dakota with a jab, teep, right straight, and outside kick to the thigh. Kielholtz is landing these inside leg kicks sometimes when Dakota jabs. Pretty nice, but it’s not going to be enough. Dakota is so much longer. Kielholtz is committing to these leg kicks, though. The camera operators are zooming in way too far in a couple of these corners, and it’s making me angry. A right hand lands for Dakota, but Kielholtz ties her up and tries for a head-and-arm throw. Jack Slack is somewhere screaming into the void. A huge knee lands for Dakota at the end of the round. It looks like Kielholtz may have folded over, but the camera work is atrocious. Competitive round, but ultimately, it’s 10-9 Dakota.

R2: Body kicks immediately from Dakota, and Kielholtz reacts. Dakota tries to close in and capitalize, but Kielholtz ties her up, trips her, and gets her to the mat. Huge for Kielholtz, but she can’t maintain it. Dakota kicks out, and they’re back to their feet. A left straight lands for Dakota. Dakota switches stances and lands a right hand from southpaw, followed by a left straight. They hit the cage, Dakota lands more shots, and they break away back to the center. Now they’re back against the cage as Kielholtz tries to grapple. They return to the center again. Dakota throws a right hand and crashes into the clinch with Kielholtz. Dakota gets her to the ground and starts throwing punches and elbows from half guard. Kielholtz clamps down with an overhook to stop the shots. Dakota stands up and lands a head kick while Kielholtz lands an inside leg kick in an awkward exchange. Kielholtz is still committed to these inside leg kicks whenever she can catch Dakota sitting down on her punches. Dakota lands several good shots, and they’re back on the ground with Dakota on top. She’s in side control, trying to land some shots. 20-18 Dakota.

R3: So far, this is not the dominant performance many were expecting, but Dakota is still winning. Inside leg kick from Kielholtz to start. Dakota front-kicks Kielholtz in the face. Head-kick follow-up. Kielholtz is tough and LANDS A SPINNING ELBOW. Dakota eats it and doesn’t look rattled at all. The stream cut out, so I’m not sure what happened for the last minute, but there are 2:15 left in this round. Dakota is in the clinch, landing knees. The story of this fight so far is Dakota throwing kicks, then crashing into the clinch whenever she throws hands, where they both try to find success. Kielholtz is able to land leg kicks at range and some punches when they tie up. That is not going to be enough. The crowd is booing. Dakota happily picks Denise Kielholtz apart at range with the better strikes. It’s not too surprising an outcome, but MVP and PFL are expecting huge things from Dakota. As I wrote below, Denise Kielholtz is no novice. She has an extensive background in kickboxing and judo and possesses enough experience to punish carelessness.

30-27 Dakota Ditcheva

RESULT: DAKOTA DITCHEVA WINS VIA UNANIMOUS DECISION OVER DENISE KIELHOLTZ

Lightweight: Amru Magomedov vs. Angel Alvarez (PICK: AMRU MAGOMEDOV) ✅

R1: Both meet in the center. Southpaw vs. southpaw. Magomedov is the first to strike with a leg kick. Magomedov is now circling on the outside and working kicks at all levels. Alvarez stumbles while throwing a punch, and Magomedov kicks the leg out from under him. He is relentless with the kicks. Alvarez leaps into range and throws a combination, but nothing lands. A teep from Magomedov lands cleanly and pushes Alvarez back. Alvarez is having a really tough time getting inside. Now they are clinched after crashing into each other. Alvarez pushes Magomedov against the cage. Some punches and knees land from both sides in the clinch. Back to center. Magomedov lands knees from the double-collar tie—very Makhachev-esque. Magomedov knocks Alvarez to the ground after another leg kick. These kicks are brutal. Alvarez gets back to his feet, though, taking an occasional deep breath but still looking game. Magomedov appears to have kicked Alvarez right in the jellybeans. There’s a break with 1:11 left in the round. The replay definitely shows the cup elevate—ouch! Time in. Magomedov goes right back to the kicks. He almost lands a lead-leg head kick. Alvarez still can’t get into range, and Magomedov is making him pay with all these kicks. They clinch, and Alvarez presses Magomedov against the cage, but he is not in control. Magomedov gets the double-collar tie, and the bell rings. Dominant round for Magomedov. 10-9 Magomedov.

R2: Let’s see what Alvarez can do this round. His leg looks terrible. Magomedov is throwing a jab and cross now alongside his kicks. They tie up. Alvarez misses a trip and pays for it. Back to getting picked apart with kicks. Magomedov takes a chance by throwing a 1-2 and misses. These kicks are brutal. Alvarez can barely stand after a kick and almost drops to the mat, looking like McGregor, but he stays up. Magomedov kicks the leg again, and Alvarez goes down. Magomedov follows him to the mat and takes side control. Alvarez grabs a single leg from his knees while Magomedov punches the side of his head. Alvarez is trying to get up without taking too much damage, but Magomedov is Magomedov-ing. Magomedov is sitting on Alvarez’s head and punching him in the face for a moment. Alvarez is doing his best to cover up and move, which is actually pretty impressive, but now Magomedov is in full mount. Elbows and punches are raining down. Alvarez is doing his best to cover up, but the ref has seen enough and calls it off.

RESULT: AMRU MAGOMEDOV DEFEATS ANGEL ALVAREZ VIA TKO IN ROUND 2

Light Heavyweight: Moustapha Diakhaté vs. Darryl Walker (PICK: DARRYL WALKER) ❌

Jake Paul talks over Moustapha’s entire walkout, which would’ve been dope.

R1: Diakhaté takes the center immediately. A jab lands and wobbles Walker. Walker is still alive. Walker lands a knee on the inside. Diakhaté catches a kick and turns it into a takedown. Walker gets back to his feet. Walker throws a kick, and it lands on Diakhaté’s head. These guys are crashing into each other. This is wild. Another takedown for Diakhaté. He’s in half guard and lands an elbow. Commentary reminds us that Walker took this fight on very short notice. Walker recovers full guard for a moment. Diakhaté lands damaging ground-and-pound, and the ref is forced to stop it.

RESULT: MOUSTAPHA DIAKHATÉ WINS VIA ROUND 1 TKO

Preliminary Card (4/5 PICKS CORRECT)

Bantamweight: Raufeon Stots vs. Lazaro Dayron (PICK: LAZARO DAYRON) ✅

R1: Both take the center. Stots is in southpaw. They trade inside leg kicks. Stots goes for a head kick. Inside body kick from Stots. Dayron answers with a head kick of his own. Stots is using all the southpaw advantages. He’s trying for the left straight now, but Dayron is slipping it. Dayron tries to sneak in a right hook, but Stots lands a body kick. Dayron lands a clean 1-2. Dayron lands another 1-2, grabs a single leg, and then abandons it. Very nice. A slapping left hand from Stots lands on top of Dayron’s head. Dayron lands another clean right hand. A jab gets through for Dayron. Stots is reading and not throwing now. Dayron has him biting on feints. Long jab from Stots, but it doesn’t land cleanly. Dayron lands another right hand. Another level change for a single leg from Dayron, and he abandons it again. He’s showing a lot of looks. Stots lands cleanly, gets hit on the break, and appears to land an uppercut, too. Dayron lands a jab. A snapping head kick from Dayron almost gets through. Jab from Stots, followed by a level change and takedown from Dayron. Stots gets up but eats a knee on the way. 10-9 Dayron.

R2: Both take the center. These front kicks to Stots’s knees and thighs are pretty cool. A combination lands for Dayron. Stots throws a jab-head-kick combination, but Dayron blocks it. Dayron jabs and doubles up on the right hand. The jab lands cleanly, but not the power hand. Stots’s left hand barely gets through, though an inside body kick lands cleanly. A snappy right hand from Dayron wobbles Stots for a second. Another right hand lands. Dayron lands a combination, too. He slips on a level change—maybe there was a clash of heads? The 1-2 is landing cleanly for Dayron. They trade inside kicks, and Dayron lands a right hand. Stots is beginning to get picked apart but responds with a clean right hook to the body. They’re just trading in the center of the cage. This is fun. A big overhand right from Dayron barely misses. Stots is staying very measured and patient, but he never really lands cleanly. As I say that, a clean jab lands for Stots. A right hand lands as Stots circles out. Another right hand from Dayron lands cleanly. I think Dayron still had the cleaner, more impactful shots in Round 2, but it was competitive. 20-18 Dayron.

R3: They are back in the center. Good jab from Stots. It’s landing over and over. Dayron tries for a takedown, but Stots shucks him off. CLEAN LEFT STRAIGHT LANDS FOR STOTS. It doesn’t hurt Dayron, but it was absolutely Stots’s cleanest shot aside from the inside body kicks. The jab is still landing cleanly for Stots, but I think he needs a finish. Dayron’s left foot seems strange, but I can’t tell whether it’s because he keeps stepping on Stots’s lead foot. Good combination from Stots that ends with a blocked head kick. Good knee stomp and jab from Dayron. He tries for a takedown but fails. Stots looks fresher and faster in Round 3 so far. Two minutes left. The jab is still landing for Stots. A lead right lands for Dayron. Jab again from Stots. Left hand from Stots. Jab to the body, right hand to the head, and into a takedown attempt from Dayron. Stots is able to get out. Dayron lands a few shots at distance and attempts another takedown, but Stots sprawls and escapes. A couple of hooks for Dayron and another takedown attempt. He looks a bit desperate here, but honestly, it’s not a bad idea because he is bleeding the clock. Stots is defending well, though, and sprawls again, landing shots to the head and a knee to the dome at the end. 29-28 Dayron.

RESULTS: 29-28 STOTS, 29-28 DAYRON, 29-28 DAYRON. LAZARO DAYRON WINS VIA SPLIT DECISION

Bantamweight: Sean Gauci vs. Allan Begosso (PICK: SEAN GAUCI) ✅

R1: Gauci takes the center. Begosso throws a left hook that nearly lands, followed by a nice jab. Good feints from Gauci, but nothing thrown yet. Begosso throws a three-punch combination that doesn’t land cleanly. Gauci lands a great right over the top. Gauci tries for a takedown against the cage, but it fails. Nice jab to the body and head from Gauci. Begosso is now committing to some leg kicks, then throws an elbow down the middle. This is tense. Begosso is landing great leg kicks, and Gauci’s calf is red. Gauci attempts a takedown and gets it in the middle of the cage. Closed guard for Begosso. Begosso is doing good work from the bottom by landing strikes, wrapping up Gauci’s arms, and controlling his posture. Gauci is landing some shots, and it looks like he lands a clean elbow, too. Gauci tries to step into half guard. Begosso grabs for a heel hook, but Gauci circles out into side control. Very competitive first round thus far. Gauci throws about six elbows and lands several good ones. This top control might win him the round. He tries for an arm triangle, abandons it, and finishes with some ground-and-pound. Very competitive first round, but I think Gauci was more effective overall. Begosso is definitely in this fight. 10-9 Sean Gauci.

R2: Gauci takes the center again. Begosso backs up to the cage and commits to circling on the outside while throwing calf kicks again and again. Of course, Gauci takes the opportunity to try for a takedown against the cage. He doesn’t get it. A right hand to the head and a left to the body land for Gauci. He changes levels and pins Begosso against the fence again. A knee to the body lands cleanly for Gauci. An elbow lands for Begosso on the break. Begosso tries a flying knee. I think he just wants some space because his back is to the fence. Begosso is throwing bungalows right now—several combinations, all of which land on Gauci’s guard. Gauci changes levels, elevates on a double leg, and gets a takedown near the center of the cage. He’s in half guard, throwing punches, and might try for an arm triangle. Gauci stays in this position, working for control and scoring with punches. Good, professional work from Gauci on top here. He’s scoring, maintaining position, and staying active as Begosso tries to work his way out. The round ends. 20-18 Gauci.

R3: I temporarily lost my stream. Begosso is throwing combinations, while Gauci stays composed and pushes Begosso toward the cage with feints. Gauci steps back as Begosso throws, changes levels, shoots a double leg, and gets the takedown. They are against the cage. Begosso gets back to his feet, but Gauci takes him down again. They are near the cage, so Begosso could drag himself back up, but Gauci is doing a good job in the half-guard position where he found so much success in Round 2. Gauci turns Begosso’s head away from the cage, and they are now parallel to it. Gauci is doing good work from the top. Very textbook and professional. Begosso almost gets a sweep, but Gauci maintains control and brings him back down to the same position. There are 1:50 left in the round, and the tide does not look to be changing. Begosso’s head is back toward the cage, and he can attempt to push off with his feet or scoot backward, but that seems unlikely at this point because Gauci is controlling him well. Twenty seconds remain in the round, and the story is the same. Same position. Gauci looks very impressive here. 30-27 Sean Gauci.

RESULT: SEAN GAUCI WINS VIA UNANIMOUS DECISION

175-Pound Catchweight: Jonathan Piersma vs. Omar El Dafrawy (PICK: JONATHAN PIERSMA) ❌

R1: Immediate low single from Piersma. He’s taking shots, but he is committed and gets the takedown. Piersma is in full guard. This is about what I expected, so we should see Piersma stack and attack. Piersma may be cut open from an elbow; blood is dripping. Piersma takes the back as El Dafrawy works his way to his feet. Piersma is backpacking and looking for RNCs and face cranks. Finally, El Dafrawy shakes him off to the side and ends up in Piersma’s full guard, throwing strikes. Good ground-and-pound from El Dafrawy, and that has been the theme of this round. El Dafrawy has been far more damaging, while Piersma has been committed to grappling and positional control. There is no question that El Dafrawy has done much more damage. Piersma gets eaten alive in the clinch to end the round. 10-9 Omar El Dafrawy.

R2: Piersma blocks a kick and gets another low-single takedown. Piersma will need to do damage or be completely dominant this round to catch back up. Piersma works his way to side control. He is really trying for a crucifix—and he gets it. Piersma takes the back now. RNC attempt here, but El Dafrawy is able to fight it off. There are 2:20 left in the round. Piersma has a body triangle and is probably going to be able to maintain this position. The crowd begins to boo. El Dafrawy almost rolls out, but Piersma is able to turn that into mount—and now he’s back on El Dafrawy’s back. The crowd is now chanting, “USA.” They return to their feet. El Dafrawy lands a knee against the cage. Piersma attempts another takedown, but El Dafrawy is able to defend and land punches. He pulls Piersma to the mat and lands punches from everywhere. Lots of punches from El Dafrawy, and I think it’s enough to take the round. Piersma is going to be exhausted heading into Round 3. 20-18 Omar El Dafrawy.

R3: I kind of missed what happened at the beginning because of the PFL graphics, but it looks like Piersma got hit with something, attempted a takedown, and didn’t get it. El Dafrawy pressures with strikes and knees against the cage. El Dafrawy rests in the clinch and tries for more strikes, but he looks absolutely exhausted. Piersma is able to get a takedown, but El Dafrawy reverses the position. El Dafrawy is tired and holding position in the referee’s position, but he is still landing some Chael Sonnen-esque punches to keep scoring. Piersma makes a determined effort to get a kimura, but that’s not going to happen. Piersma climbs back to his feet while taking shots the entire way. He tries for a takedown and ends up on top. He takes back mount and tries for an RNC with 20 seconds left. Small punches from Piersma from back mount. The round ends. 30-27 Omar El Dafrawy on my card.

RESULT: 30-27, 29-28, 30-27 — OMAR EL DAFRAWY WINS VIA UNANIMOUS DECISION

Women’s Flyweight: Montana De La Rosa vs. Tatiana Postarnakova (PICK: TATIANA POSTARNAKOVA) ✅

R1: De La Rosa and Postarnakova test the range while standing in the center of the cage. De La Rosa is the first to press forward with a combination, and Postarnakova steps back with a couple of counters. The most WMMA exchange ever. De La Rosa attempts a stance-switch head kick. A lead hook lands for De La Rosa, and she fakes a takedown, almost Edgar-style. De La Rosa tries the lead high kick again from southpaw, and it glances off Postarnakova’s head. Beautiful inside leg kick from De La Rosa, and she circles out. Postarnakova doesn’t have much to offer. She tries a slow turning side kick that doesn’t land. Meanwhile, De La Rosa is throwing the jab, landing inside leg kicks, and circling out, making herself a difficult target. Postarnakova finally tries for a takedown, but De La Rosa is able to thwart the attempt. They move against the cage, where De La Rosa tries for a head-and-arm throw, I think, but Postarnakova reverses it. They get back to their feet. Postarnakova backpacks, and they return to the ground with Postarnakova still on De La Rosa’s back, attempting RNCs. It’s not a good position for De La Rosa, but the round is ending. 10-9 De La Rosa. (It seems some media members are scoring it for Postarnakova.)

R2: De La Rosa lands an inside leg kick and a right hook at close range. You can tell it stuns Postarnakova, even if only for a brief second. They’re tied up against the cage again, with De La Rosa acting as the aggressor. The crowd is booing as they stall against the cage, which is strange because they were chanting, “USA,” a minute ago. De La Rosa is in the better position, controlling and throwing knees. It would be wise for De La Rosa to separate and return to the center, but she is committed to pressing Postarnakova against the cage and getting the fight to the mat. It’s a very interesting choice, as Postarnakova is looking for her neck. Postarnakova jumps the gilly. It’s tight, but I’m not sure she has it. De La Rosa seems okay. One wrong move and Postarnakova could adjust it, but she lets go instead. De La Rosa is now in a good position for some classic ground-and-pound. De La Rosa has a gilly attempt of her own now. It also looks tight, but it doesn’t quite look fight-ending. Scottish Twister position, but it doesn’t look like much. The round comes to a close. Strange round. 10-9 De La Rosa. (It seems most people may have it 19-19.)

R3: DLR with the leg kick and right hand to start again. It’s been working great. They are trading jabs and crosses. Pstarnakova lands a couple good shots, she fades back and lands another counter as DLR pressed forward. Head kick, more of a foot slap, across Postarnakova’s face. Postarnakova goes for a takedown, DLR reverses and takes the back but Postarnakova rolls and she is nearly in top position. She is in a high half guard but now shes in guard, butterfly hooks for DLR. This is good for Postarnakova WHO I SNOW LANDING NASTY ELBOWS. Thudding! DLR trapped on bottom, unable to find a way to escape and time is running out. DLR almost finds a moment to escape after a triangle attempt but Postarnakova is all over her. Postarnakova landing knees as DLR works her way to her feet. DLR now trying to get this to the ground? Both are exchanging knees and punches from the clinch.
R3: 10-9 Postarnakova. 29-28 Montana De La Rosa but I anticipate it’ll be a split dec for Postarnakova.

RESULT: TATIANA POSTARNAKOVA WINS VIA SPLIT DEC OVER MONTANA DE LA ROSA

Lightweight: Chamy Delva vs. Levan Khabalaev (PICK: LEVAN KHABALAEV) ✅

R1: Delva clinches early. Both against the cage as Devla is the aggressor. Khabalaev able to reverse position after a TD defense and Delva is against the cage. Devla committed to the bodylock. Khabalaev looks to have hurt Delva and he drops to the ground but is still holding that body lock. Delva lets go of body lock, Khabalaev lands another body shot that seriously hurts Delva. Khabalaev with ground and pound. Fight over.

RESULT: LEVAN KHABALAEV WINS VIA ROUND 1 TKO OVER CHAMY DELVA (Knee to the body followed by ground and pound)

Magomedov Heads a Strong List of Rising Talent; Colgan Faces His Supreme Test

THE Professional Fighters League moves into New York on Friday, July 31, with nine bouts on the program and several ambitious young battlers seeking a place among the promotion’s top brass.

The preliminary contests get under way at 3 p.m., Central time, with the main card following at 6. The nine-bout program includes a late light-heavyweight pairing between unbeaten Moustapha Diakhaté and Darryl Walker.

Usman Nurmagomedov’s lightweight championship defense against Archie Colgan tops the bill, but the supporting card contains several names well worth filing away for future reference.

Some are prospects in the strict sense. Others have already reached contender or championship rank. All have something important to prove in New York.

AMRU MAGOMEDOV

The Best Prospect on the Bill

AMRU MAGOMEDOV, unbeaten in ten starts, appears to be the best orthodox prospect on the program.

The 27-year-old lightweight has disposed of eight opponents inside the distance and made a smashing PFL debut by halting Kolton Englund in only 37 seconds. That brief engagement did not tell us everything about Magomedov, but it told us plenty about his intentions.

He comes forward, closes the distance rapidly and applies the familiar pressure-wrestling attack associated with the Nurmagomedov camp. Magomedov, however, is no mere takedown specialist. He handles himself capably on his feet, strikes with authority and appears comfortable carrying the attack wherever the fight may travel.

Angel Alvarez, 11-2, should offer more resistance than Englund did.

The principal question is what happens if Alvarez survives the first rush. Magomedov has looked formidable when permitted to seize command at once. New York may reveal whether he can maintain that pace, make adjustments and remain dangerous after an opponent has spoiled his original plan.

A decisive victory would mark Magomedov as genuine championship timber in the lightweight class.

DAKOTA DITCHEVA

A Champion With Star Possibilities

DAKOTA DITCHEVA can hardly be called a prospect any longer.

The undefeated English flyweight has won all 15 of her professional engagements, nine of them under the PFL banner, and has stopped 12 opponents. She has already captured tournament honors and defeated established international competition.

What remains to be discovered is not whether Ditcheva belongs among the leading PFL fighters. She does.

The question is how far her combination of ability, personality and crowd appeal can carry her.

Ditcheva is tall for the weight, quick with her hands and particularly effective when opponents retreat in straight lines. She strikes in combinations, attacks the body and has shown the poise of a much more experienced campaigner.

Denise Kielholtz is no novice. She has an extensive background in kickboxing and judo and possesses enough experience to punish carelessness. Nevertheless, the match appears favorable to Ditcheva, who should hold the advantages in range, speed and offensive variety.

The condition of Ditcheva’s hands bears watching. Injuries have interrupted her activity and kept her from maintaining the momentum created by her championship run.

Should she return in top form, Ditcheva may be not only the leading woman in the PFL ranks but one of the organization’s most valuable attractions.

ARCHIE COLGAN

The Night’s Biggest Opportunity

NO fighter on the card has more to gain than Archie Colgan.

Colgan enters the championship contest unbeaten in 13 professional bouts. A former collegiate wrestler, he has advanced behind physical strength, steady pressure and the ability to force opponents into exhausting grappling exchanges.

Those weapons have brought him to Usman Nurmagomedov.

Now we shall learn whether they can carry him any farther.

Nurmagomedov presents dangers at every distance. He is long, accurate with his kicks, difficult to hold down and capable of turning an opponent’s desperate takedown attempt into a submission opportunity.

Colgan cannot afford to become impatient. If he shoots from too far away or follows Nurmagomedov around the enclosure without cutting off his escape, the champion may pick him apart.

The challenger’s best chance is to crowd Nurmagomedov, keep him moving backward and turn the contest into a hard physical struggle. That is easier written than accomplished.

Colgan is 31, which makes this a test of the present rather than a promise for the future. There is little time for a gradual climb through the ratings.

A victory would make him an internationally important lightweight champion overnight. A strong showing in defeat could still improve his standing. But this is the bout that will tell us whether Colgan is merely a sound contender or a man capable of defeating the best.

TATIANA POSTARNAKOVA

The Hidden Prospect

TATIANA POSTARNAKOVA may be the most interesting young fighter on the preliminary card.

The 26-year-old flyweight has won all seven of her professional contests. Her opponent, Montana De La Rosa, brings a much less attractive record at 13-9-1, but those figures do not tell the whole story.

De La Rosa has operated against stronger and more experienced competition. She is accustomed to clinches, takedown battles and prolonged scrambles—the very situations that often expose an unbeaten prospect.

Postarnakova will not gain much merely by winning a cautious decision. What matters is how she handles the veteran’s grappling and striking, whether she can escape bad positions and whether she can impose her own game after the first plan has been interrupted.

A convincing triumph would move Postarnakova much closer to the leading PFL flyweights and make her a possible future rival for Ditcheva.

SEAN GAUCI

Speed, Punches and One Big Question

SEAN GAUCI has reeled off eight consecutive victories and carries an 11-1 record into his meeting with Allan Begosso.

Gauci is a quick bantamweight who likes to work in combinations. Once he finds the proper distance, he can increase his output rapidly and overwhelm an opponent before the latter has time to recover.

His recent victory over former Cage Warriors champion Liam Gittins was a useful addition to his record and suggested that Gauci is ready for better company.

There remains one flaw to watch.

Gauci can become careless while attacking. He sometimes remains in range after completing a combination and may leave openings while pursuing a finish. Those liberties can be taken against ordinary opposition. They become costly against ranked men.

Begosso is a reasonable next assignment. Gauci should have the advantage in speed and variety, but the manner in which he conducts himself will be important.

A sharp, disciplined victory should earn him a match with one of the better bantamweights in the organization.

MOUSTAPHA DIAKHATÉ

The Raw Light-Heavyweight

MOUSTAPHA DIAKHATÉ is undefeated, powerfully built and equipped with the sort of physical tools that immediately command attention in the light-heavyweight class.

He has size, strength and genuine hitting power. When he attacks with confidence, he can make an opponent’s evening a short and unpleasant one.

Darryl Walker has accepted the assignment on the revised card, making this more of a showcase for Diakhaté than a complete examination of his ability.

That does not mean the bout is without interest.

Against Walker, attention should be paid to Diakhaté’s balance, patience and punch selection. A young power hitter can often become wild when an opponent refuses to fall at once.

Diakhaté possesses one of the more intriguing physical ceilings on the program. Before he can be regarded as a contender, however, he must meet opponents capable of testing his defense and forcing him beyond his first attack.

LAZARO DAYRON

Prospect or Immediate Contender?

LAZARO DAYRON is 33 years old, which is rather advanced for a fighter still being called a prospect.

His record, however, demands attention.

Dayron is 10-0-1 and has used a strong wrestling attack to move toward the front of the PFL bantamweight picture. In his latest victory he completed seven takedowns, and he previously fought the difficult Danny Sabatello to a draw.

His New York opponent, Raufeon Stots, is the best measuring stick on the undercard.

Stots is a former interim Bellator champion and a complete, seasoned bantamweight. He can wrestle, scramble, box and make tactical adjustments during a contest. He has seen nearly every style and will not be surprised by Dayron’s first line of attack.

Because of Dayron’s age, there is no reason to move him slowly.

Should he defeat Stots in convincing fashion, the “prospect” label ought to be discarded. He would deserve immediate consideration among the promotion’s leading title challengers.

LEVAN KHABALAEV

A Long Lightweight With Finishing Intent

LEVAN KHABALAEV stands 6-foot-2, an unusual height for a lightweight, and has built his early record around quick finishes.

His reach gives him obvious possibilities. A tall lightweight who can strike effectively at the end of his punches and kicks is a troublesome proposition.

Chamy Delva is experienced enough to make Khabalaev answer several useful questions.

Can the tall man maintain his distance when crowded? Can he defend takedowns without surrendering position? Can he keep a steady pace if the early finish does not come?

Khabalaev remains one of the least proven fighters on the card, but he may also be one of the more interesting long-range investments in the lightweight division.

This is the sort of preliminary contest that can introduce a future contender—or expose a fighter whose early record was built against opposition unable to test him.

THREE QUESTIONS TO BE ANSWERED

THE principal fighter to watch is Amru Magomedov. He appears to possess the best combination of age, skill, finishing ability and championship potential.

Archie Colgan faces the most important test. One victory could completely alter his position in the lightweight world.

Dakota Ditcheva has the greatest possibilities as an attraction. Her ability is already established; the matter now is whether she can remain healthy, active and visible enough to become one of the promotion’s central figures.

Postarnakova is the best concealed prospect on the preliminary bill. Dayron has the strongest veteran examination. Gauci is approaching ranked competition. Diakhaté has the raw materials, while Khabalaev remains an intriguing question mark.

PFL New York may be headed by a championship contest, but the future of several divisions will be operating farther down the bill.

Keep an eye on the youngsters.

One or two may not remain youngsters for long.

Speaking of knees, Kamaru Usman fights this weekend, July 18, 2026, in Oklahoma City—for some reason—and will also be taking on a younger former champion at a higher weight class.

Obviously, I’m drawing some parallels between Conor’s return and Usman’s, but there are some key differences. Despite Usman’s bad knees, he isn’t coming off a devastating injury to his tibia and fibula. He also fought last year. But he is 39 years old and is moving up once again to fight at middleweight.

Before his last fight, Usman took on Khamzat Chimaev on 10 days’ notice, replacing Paulo Costa. It was also his middleweight debut.

It was a strange fight. Kamaru clearly lost the first round, with all three judges scoring it 10-8. In the second, Chimaev barely tried for takedowns for most of the round and instead chose to have a light sparring match with Usman. He scored a takedown late and got some control time, but that still should have been an Usman round. Some judges didn’t see it that way.

The third was mostly the same story, except Chimaev attempted—and failed—on more takedowns. He did secure one and got more control time, but I still thought it was another clear round for Usman. Again, some judges didn’t see it that way.

What probably should have been a draw ended up being a majority decision for Chimaev in a strange three-round affair.

Personally, there isn’t much to take away from that fight other than Usman becoming another victim of Chimaev’s first-round domination. After watching Strickland’s recent fight with the Chechen, all I can say is that Chimaev is a fucking headcase.

After a two-year layoff, Usman returned against Joaquin Buckley, who I thought was a good comeback opponent. He also shares some similarities with DDP, although the comparisons are few and far between. Still, he is a better matchup than some of the other opponents he could have faced.

Despite Usman being around a +205 underdog and Buckley coming in at -263, I felt pretty comfortable taking Usman. The reason was simple: Buckley doesn’t seem to have any rhyme or reason to how he fights. He just throws bungalows across the Octagon until he hopefully lands something.

I figured that if Usman minded his p’s and q’s, he’d be able to beat him. Aside from things getting a little hairy in the final round, Usman didn’t have much trouble with Buckley at all.

I scored every round for Kamaru, as did a lot of media outlets. The judges gave Buckley the final round, which… fine. I’m cool with that.

Fast-forward a little over a year, and now Usman is facing another athletic bruiser—one who is arguably even more awkward. I also like to call DDP a Street Shark on rollerblades.

As mentioned earlier, Usman is now 39 years old, while DDP is 32. DDP is officially listed as only an inch taller, but I have a feeling he’s going to look noticeably bigger once they’re standing across from each other. He just seems to have a larger frame than Usman, although we probably won’t know for sure until the faceoff.

Fighter Comparison

UFC Statistics

There’s no question that Usman is the superior wrestler. But assuming he’s going to have the same success against DDP that Chimaev did would be incredibly naive. As noted earlier, Usman was also dominated in the first round of that fight.

I felt confident picking Usman over Buckley. I don’t feel the same about his chances against DDP. Outside of both men being awkward and athletic, I think the Buckley comparison ends there.

DDP is relentless and can somehow sustain a high-volume pressure style over five rounds. I think Usman is going to have trouble in the striking exchanges. Even when he has success, DDP is uniquely good at taking one shot and answering with three or four strikes of his own. They look goofy and high-impact, even when half of them might not land. Optics.

I expect Usman to have some early success with his grappling and land a few good shots here and there. But as the rounds progress, the pace and sheer ridiculousness of DDP’s style will start wearing on him.

Spend too much time rewatching DDP’s fights and you can convince yourself otherwise, but we have to keep this practical. This is a fight DDP should win.

Kamaru Usman beating DDP would be very impressive, but it might also say more about how shit the UFC’s middleweight division is. In Usman’s prime, this could have been a much more likely outcome.

Give me DDP by third-round stoppage.

Takeaways

• Cody Durden: game but ass. The only pick on the card I felt was definitely a stretch but ya know, old dog, experienced, short noticed, coming off an underdog win. Maybe had some momentum. Nope.
• Zachary Reese: flat-footed and flatlined.
• John Garza has great pressure and boxing. Good bodywork.
• Basharat will likely struggle against other fighters with strong wrestling and formidable striking. His gas tank isn’t bad, but it is certainly weak in round three, and you can see it in his entries. He becomes desperate for takedowns and can’t get them against Garza, who couldn’t defend them in the first two rounds. He finally gets one near the end of the third, but it may be too little, too late for the round scoring.
• Pinas is grounded and powerful.
• Tracy Cortez had a tremendously bad game plan. Tough as nails, but not much to show for it at the end of the fight against Wang Cong.
• Wang Cong did not knock out Tracy, which is a bit surprising.
• Luke Riley might be a problem. He is now 14-0 with a first-round knockout over Kai Kamaka III.
• Yanez and Garbrandt got into a firefight, with both exchanging heavy shots, but Yanez has a chin and Cody does not. Cody doesn’t get slept, but he gets rocked and dropped enough for the referee to step in.
• Elisha Ellison threw down with Gable Steveson. Steveson used teeps, good jabs, and heavy hands. He reacted well to getting punched and had a crazy sprawl. Very reactive and bites on feints although this is a minor criticism. I imagine he’ll correct with experience. He may have also had a failed takedown attempt? Need to rewatch.
• Whittaker looked sharp and reinvigorated at light heavyweight. I’ll need to rewatch it because the UFC was testing simulcasts, but Whittaker wins via third-round TKO. I’ll forever regret picking against him in this fight. Thought I had a good read but it felt sinful picking against Bob Knucks.
• T. McKinney looked to take a dive at the end of the first round from what appeared to be a glancing body shot. I say that mostly joking but I didn’t get another angle of the body shot. The referee stepped in at literally the last second. King Green was otherwise getting his ass kicked.
• Brandon Royval, despite being dropped a couple of times, put an ass-whooping on Kavanagh with intense pressure and high volume. He looked like a world-beater and was easily part of the Fight of the Night up to that point.
• Bautista and Sandhagen had a competitive fight. I personally think it could’ve gone Cory’s way, but the judges scored it unanimously for Mario. It wasn’t a bad performance from either fighter, but this will definitely be worth revisiting for tape study.
• Pimblett had one of the all-time best walkouts with this one and impressively submitted BSD in 52 seconds. BSD ran directly at Paddy and got into deep water he couldn’t swim out of. The D’Arce choke was nasty.
• Words cannot express how hilarious and satisfying this is. Conor McGregor appears to have blown out his knee with the very first flying switch kick he threw wildly out of range.

I noted during Buffer’s pre-fight formalities that both guys looked nervous. McGregor’s walkout also seemed unusually tame. Nonetheless, Max looked at the referee and told him that Conor was obviously injured, but he had to keep fighting anyway until Max mercifully allowed Conor to stand.

Conor could not stand at all on his right leg, and the referee called it off. Many will likely view this as disappointing or anticlimactic, but I feel exactly the opposite. This is a hilarious, comical, and deserved outcome.

I’m fine with being called a hater, but how can anyone truly feel bad, whether you like Conor or not? I thought of Chael Sonnen’s quote almost immediately after the contest:

“You’re only going to be alive for so long, so if you can compete in a sport — don’t forget, sports are for kids — and if you’re lucky enough to do that as an adult, you’re just that: lucky. I will leave face down and embarrassed, the only way you should leave sports.”

It has been a quiet fight week ahead of Conor McGregor’s return. Of course, the hype rarely reaches its peak until the weigh-ins or the day of the fight.

McGregor is also no longer the young, up-and-coming prospect doing extraordinary amounts of media. If anything, he appears to be trying to rehabilitate his image—and he has taken the religious-grifter route.

After a five-year hiatus and a devastating injury, we finally get to see what Conor McGregor looks like. Is he catching Max Holloway at a good time?

Or is Holloway catching McGregor at a good time?

Tale of the Tape

Conor McGregor is 37. Max Holloway is 34.

The fight is being contested at 170 pounds. Holloway is slightly taller, listed at 5 feet 11 inches, while McGregor is listed at 5 feet 9 inches.

McGregor has a frame built for deceptive reach, especially when he was fighting at featherweight. He has a 74-inch reach compared with Holloway’s 69-inch reach.

The current odds show Holloway as a moderate favorite and McGregor as a slight underdog.

Revisiting Their First Fight

I rewatched McGregor and Holloway’s first meeting, along with McGregor’s most recent fights against Dustin Poirier.

Their first fight was genuinely good, and it was enjoyable to revisit. Holloway looked rigid, but he had a fairly sound game plan. He ultimately lost a decision, but there were small moments of success in that loss that would, in a way, foreshadow McGregor’s first loss to Poirier.

There are plenty of stylistic differences between Holloway and Poirier. Their fundamental stances are different, as were the stages of their careers when they faced McGregor.

What I liked about Holloway’s performance was the way he disrupted McGregor’s stance and rhythm with leg kicks. He eventually began finding McGregor with the jab and left hook.

What is particularly interesting is what happened when McGregor closed the distance and backed Holloway toward the cage. McGregor would throw his left hand and use his frame, but Holloway was able to read the attack and counter with his right hand.

Again, those moments did not win Holloway the fight. They do show, however, that even during McGregor’s rise—when his style was more refined—Holloway was able to find areas of success.

The Poirier Blueprint

Eight years later, we saw something similar when McGregor fought Dustin Poirier, only with devastating consequences. Poirier’s success eventually led to McGregor losing by knockout. McGregor was the favorite in that fight as well.

A key difference between Poirier’s second fight with McGregor and their third—which remains McGregor’s most recent fight—was that McGregor looked much closer to the version of himself who was still on the rise.

He threw far more kicks, moved more fluidly on his feet and still showed the boxing-heavy approach that had become central to his game.

One thing has remained consistent throughout McGregor’s career: his best moments come when opponents believe they can hit him. He slides out of the way and counters with the straight left, occasionally following it with a sneaky right hand that can resemble a shovel punch.

The Questions Surrounding McGregor

What will McGregor’s pace and tempo look like after five years away, especially at 170 pounds? How hesitant will he be to throw kicks?

Holloway tends to build momentum as fights progress, while McGregor generally begins to fade in the second round.

I do not think there is any question that Holloway is past his physical prime, but he is still tough. Durable opponents have historically presented problems for McGregor—particularly fighters who can absorb his best attacks and continue moving forward.

Another major difference is that this fight is scheduled for five rounds.

Holloway’s Recent Form

I do feel some hesitation about picking Holloway, and that is probably because of his fight with Ilia Topuria.

A disciplined striker with knockout power stopped an incredibly mobile volume striker with elite cardio. I picked Topuria to win that fight, but I do not feel the same way about McGregor’s chances here.

What gives me more confidence in Holloway is his history against Dustin Poirier.

McGregor’s Preparation

For what it is worth, McGregor physically looks good. He has kept a relatively quiet camp and has had a significant amount of time away from competition to recover from his fractured tibia and fibula, as well as a broken toe.

I have heard that he completed approximately nine solid months of consistent training, which is not insignificant. It is impossible to know exactly how consistent he has been—even if he did put a bed in the gym.

Prediction

I think this fight could resemble McGregor’s fights with Nate Diaz: Holloway absorbs the early punches, McGregor begins to tire and Holloway takes over.

McGregor has produced good moments in his last few fights, but compared with the performances from his prime, the overall results have not been encouraging.

Holloway may also be past his prime, but his recent performances have still been very good. Add five years of uncertainty surrounding McGregor, along with his decision to compete at 170 rather than discipline himself enough to return to 155, and I think we will see a version of McGregor who has a few good moments before ultimately falling flat.

Give me Max Holloway by decision or a stoppage in the later rounds.

If McGregor wins, the significance of his comeback will be overinflated, and he will lean heavily into the result as he attempts to rehabilitate his public image.

That would still be an impressive athletic achievement. Returning after five years and defeating someone like Max Holloway would deserve credit. McGregor has also had ample time to recover, and no disrespect to Holloway, but nobody who understands MMA should be shocked if McGregor lands the knockout.

All of that said, I believe much of the MMA media, the broader media and a large portion of the fan base would quickly look past the civil court verdict against McGregor, in which a jury found him liable for assaulting Nikita Hand after she accused him of rape, as well as the numerous other controversies and allegations that have followed him.

That would feed directly into what I believe is his broader goal: rehabilitating his public image.

UFC Freedom 250 takes place this Sunday at one of the most unusual venues in combat sports history: the White House lawn.

The event was announced nearly a year ago, and after months of political arguments, speculation, complaints, and terrible takes from every possible direction, it is finally here.

Personally, I find the political affiliation surrounding the UFC incredibly annoying and goofy. That will be especially true if Kid Rock becomes involved.

More than anything, though, the event leaves me wondering why the UFC has not taken more chances on large or unconventional venues in the past.

Conor McGregor fighting at Croke Park was discussed for years, but Dana White did not want to deal with the weather, insects, and other logistical risks. AT&T Stadium, home of the Dallas Cowboys, has also been suggested. White has said he believes the UFC could sell it out, but he prefers the atmosphere of indoor arenas.

At the same time, the UFC was willing to hold an event at the Sphere in Las Vegas. That show was impressive, even if the experience was also a little strange.

The promotion has never held an event in Hawaii, either. That is remarkable for a state that produced fighters such as BJ Penn and Max Holloway.

From a production standpoint, however, I appreciate what the UFC is attempting with Freedom 250. Staging an MMA event on the White House lawn is an extraordinary logistical undertaking, and I am genuinely curious to see how the presentation looks.

I am less excited about the national anthem, ceremonies, and whatever other pomp surrounds the fights. Boxing frequently turns major events into exhausting spectacles, with elaborate entrances and ceremonies delaying the main event for what feels like hours.

The UFC was originally built around the idea that it would not make the same mistakes as boxing, so it will be interesting to see how the company balances the historic setting with the actual fights.

Whatever happens, Freedom 250 will bring enormous exposure to the UFC. It will also bring opinions from people who rarely, if ever, watch MMA.

That is the inevitable result of a major spectacle. New viewers arrive, attention increases, and suddenly everyone has a fully formed opinion about a sport they discovered five minutes ago.

Regular MMA fans already produce enough questionable analysis, so prepare yourselves.

New viewers may also discover that MMA can look remarkably homoerotic at times. That is simply part of the experience.

With all the ceremony and political discussion out of the way, let us move to the subject that has received surprisingly little attention: the fights.

Ilia Topuria vs. Justin Gaethje

The main event features Ilia Topuria against Justin Gaethje in what is being promoted as a lightweight title-unification bout.

The title situation does not make much sense. If the UFC is going to distribute championships as freely as it often does, Topuria should probably also possess the BMF title, while Gaethje should be attempting to unify the lightweight championship and regain the BMF belt at the same time.

Topuria enters as a substantial favorite, which is understandable. He has looked exceptional and is the considerably younger fighter. Topuria is 29 years old, while Gaethje is 37.

Gaethje is taller at 5 feet 11 inches compared with Topuria at 5 feet 7 inches, but his reach advantage is only one inch.

My pick is Topuria.

One of the most important technical elements will be how Topuria handles Gaethje’s single-collar tie. Gaethje uses it constantly to break his opponent’s posture before throwing heavy punches at close range.

Leg kicks will also be significant. Gaethje often throws them from unusually close distances, which could be interesting against Topuria’s more conventional boxing stance.

Topuria is generally effective at shifting his weight between his lead and rear legs, but Gaethje’s timing and willingness to exchange could still create problems.

Gaethje is extremely comfortable in chaotic close-range exchanges. He has even thrown wild head kicks from the clinch. That particular technique may not determine this fight, but it illustrates how unpredictable he can be when the distance collapses.

Topuria does a good job slipping punches and protecting himself behind his shoulder. However, he can be hit on his right side, particularly by hooks and kicks that travel around his shoulder rather than directly through his guard.

It does not happen constantly, but it happens often enough to be worth watching.

Conditioning may also become a major factor. This fight could be contested at a high pace and become ugly very quickly.

The outdoor setting adds another variable. The canvas could become slippery, particularly with the enormous number of sponsor logos usually printed across it.

By the time the main event begins, the surface may also be covered with sweat, blood, and water from the previous fights. It will be interesting to see whether the UFC replaces or cleans the canvas before the main event.

There has also been discussion about the pressure associated with competing on this card. Gaethje may feel a particular obligation to perform for the American crowd and the dignitaries in attendance, especially with a championship at stake.

Gaethje has historically thrived under pressure, though, and he appears to enjoy being the underdog. That psychological element may work in his favor.

Topuria has reportedly predicted a first-round knockout. I believe he wins, but I expect the finish to come in the second or third round. I am accounting for the outdoor conditions and the possibility of a more cautious opening than expected.

This is an excellent main event, even though I still believe Arman Tsarukyan should be occupying this position.

Prediction: Ilia Topuria by knockout in Round 2 or Round 3.

Alex Pereira vs. Ciryl Gane

In the co-main event, Alex “Poatan” Pereira moves to heavyweight to face Ciryl Gane for the interim heavyweight championship.

The betting odds are close, and it will be worth monitoring how the line moves as the fight approaches.

Gane is two years younger and holds a slight reach advantage, measuring 81 inches compared with Pereira’s 79. Gane is also the natural heavyweight, although the two fighters have relatively similar professional records.

Gane’s game is built around mobility. He uses extensive lateral movement, attacks the body with kicks, and generally manages distance well.

However, he sometimes retreats in straight lines and frequently carries his hands low.

Pereira will likely attempt to take away Gane’s space, cut off the cage, and force him behind the outer boundary line. From there, Pereira can attack as Gane circles away or catch him during exchanges when the pressure begins to build.

Pereira is fully capable of scoring a knockout, but I am leaning toward Gane.

Gane is the more dynamic overall fighter, and that versatility matters at heavyweight. I believe it will take more than one clean punch to remove him from the fight.

Over five rounds, Gane may gradually establish his rhythm and accumulate momentum.

I am also interested in whether Gane attempts any takedowns. The clinch exchanges and positions against the cage could be pivotal.

Whichever fighter lands the cleaner shots as they separate may gain a major advantage.

A decision victory for Gane is entirely possible, but in the spirit of America and freedom, let us hope the fight ends inside the distance.

I expect Gane to accumulate damage and eventually land something devastating from range in the third round. Still, this is heavyweight MMA, so no result should be considered surprising.

This may be the fight I am anticipating most, partly because Pereira’s walkout is one of the best in combat sports. Hearing Sepultura played at the White House would be undeniably cold.

Prediction: Ciryl Gane by knockout or technical knockout in Round 3.

Sean O’Malley vs. Aiemann Zahabi

Sean O’Malley enters his fight against Aiemann Zahabi as a substantial favorite.

The size of the betting line initially seems surprising because Zahabi is a durable and intelligent fighter. It is not impossible to imagine him turning the contest into an ugly, competitive fight and winning a decision.

There is also the completely scientific concern that O’Malley could slip on the outdoor canvas and injure one of his famously delicate ankles.

The odds become more understandable after examining the matchup. O’Malley has the greater name recognition and ranking, and he is younger, taller, and longer.

Statistically, Zahabi tends to absorb roughly one strike for every strike he lands. O’Malley, by comparison, is much better at landing without remaining in position for the immediate return.

Zahabi and his brother, Firas, are capable of constructing an effective game plan, so I would not completely dismiss his chances. He may be able to disrupt O’Malley’s rhythm and make the fight uncomfortable.

Ultimately, however, I expect O’Malley’s length, movement, and defensive awareness to carry him to a decision victory.

Prediction: Sean O’Malley by decision.

Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit

Donald Trump’s favorite fighter, Derrick Lewis, faces Josh Hokit, who may replace Lewis as Trump’s favorite fighter by the end of Sunday night.

Lewis is 41 years old, while Hokit is 28. Hokit is reportedly only a few inches shorter, but he gives up approximately five inches in reach.

Despite that disadvantage, Hokit enters as the favorite.

There is always a reasonable argument for betting on Lewis by knockout. He is one of the most powerful fighters in UFC history, owns an enormous number of knockout victories, and competes in a division where one punch can erase everything that happened beforehand.

Hokit also absorbed plenty of punches in his fight with Curtis Blaydes, so Lewis will have opportunities.

However, this matchup reminds me of how easily Daniel Cormier was able to take Lewis down. Hokit does not possess the same credentials as Cormier, but the comparison is relevant enough to illustrate the potential problem.

Lewis may land a few heavy punches or kicks, but I expect Hokit to attack the legs, drag him to the canvas, and control the fight from there.

Once the fight reaches the ground, Hokit should be able to produce damage and find a submission. The only question is whether it comes through an arm triangle or a rear-naked choke.

The rear-naked choke may sound a little too homoerotic for all the new viewers, but an arm triangle looks like an awkward hug, so there is no perfect solution.

I will go with the traditional option.

Prediction: Josh Hokit by rear-naked choke in Round 1.

Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy

Michael Chandler wants to be Donald Trump’s favorite fighter, but he is not. He also wants to fight Conor McGregor, but apparently that is not happening either.

Instead, Chandler faces Mauricio Ruffy, who is at least vaguely reminiscent of McGregor.

Ruffy is a major favorite, and it is easy to understand why. Chandler is 40 years old, while Ruffy is 29. Ruffy is also taller and owns a meaningful reach advantage.

As long as Ruffy does not spend three rounds being controlled by Chandler’s wrestling—and does not get kicked directly in the face—I have difficulty seeing him lose.

Ruffy has reportedly built a gym and training camp around himself rather than operating as a conventional member of the Fighting Nerds team.

I like that approach. It resembles the individualized camps once constructed around major boxing stars such as Muhammad Ali and George Foreman.

There are faint shades of McGregor against Chad Mendes in this matchup, although the similarities begin to disappear as soon as you examine them closely.

Chandler should have moments early, especially if he commits to his wrestling and refuses to engage recklessly.

History suggests that he will eventually abandon the safest strategy and enter a chaotic exchange.

Unless Chandler has substantially increased his dosage of American-made freedom supplements, I expect Ruffy to finish him.

Prediction: Mauricio Ruffy by technical knockout in Round 2.

Bo Nickal vs. Kyle Daukaus

The card also includes another candidate for Donald Trump’s favorite fighter: Bo Nickal.

Nickal faces Kyle Daukaus in a matchup between two southpaws. The last time Nickal fought a southpaw, Reinier de Ridder repeatedly found him with strikes and eventually finished him.

That experience is relevant here.

Nickal enters as a moderate favorite. His record stands at 8-1, while Daukaus brings considerably more experience with a 17-4 record and is beginning his second UFC stint.

Daukaus is a few inches taller, although their reach is identical. Nickal is three years younger at 30.

I like Daukaus more than the betting odds suggest.

The most likely outcome is still Nickal controlling the fight through takedowns, mat returns, and superior positioning before winning a decision.

He is the more accomplished athlete and possesses vastly superior wrestling credentials.

Nickal’s striking has improved, but he still needs experience. He looked solid against Rodolfo Vieira, although Vieira offered almost nothing offensively in that fight.

He moved with the urgency of a parked car.

Daukaus has the tools to make this contest ugly. He can occupy space, pressure forward, and land combinations. He will probably absorb punches in return, but he may be durable enough to take them.

Nickal’s defensive striking and footwork are not yet developed enough to completely neutralize Daukaus. When exchanges become uncomfortable, Nickal will almost certainly search for takedowns.

Daukaus may not possess elite takedown defense, and he will probably lose certain scrambling positions. However, he is a legitimate submission threat.

Pressure could also influence Nickal’s decision-making. He will not want to look bad in front of his powerful golfing friend.

That may encourage him to attempt risky techniques that do not serve his best interests, much as he did against de Ridder.

The correct strategy for Nickal is straightforward: wrestle constantly, establish dominant positions, produce damage, and continue wrestling.

This is one of the best and most logical matchups on the card. Picking the underdog may not be the intelligent choice, but I am willing to have some fun.

I believe Daukaus can hurt Nickal on the feet, force a desperate wrestling exchange, and attack his neck during the transition.

Prediction: Kyle Daukaus by submission in Round 2.

Diego Lopes vs. Steve Garcia

The opening fight of the White House card features Diego Lopes against Steve Garcia.

It is easy to understand why the UFC selected this matchup to begin the event. Conceptually, it should produce immediate fireworks.

Garcia is only a slight underdog. He is three years older, slightly taller, and appears to hold a reach advantage of approximately two and a half inches.

Garcia owns a 19-5 record, while Lopes enters at 27-8.

The southpaw-versus-orthodox dynamic also makes the fight interesting, with Garcia operating from the southpaw stance.

Garcia is unusually built for a featherweight. His limbs look exceptionally long, and his style is awkward in an effective way.

He uses constant movement and feints, maintains an active lead hand, and frequently attacks with front kicks.

I am a fan of his approach. His volume and movement alone could create problems for Lopes.

However, Lopes’ losses have generally come against elite competition. His difficulty cutting off the cage is well established, but that weakness may be less important against Garcia, who is more willing to engage.

Garcia manages long range effectively, but he can be caught by counters.

His striking differential is remarkable, averaging 5.39 significant strikes landed per minute while absorbing only 2.12.

Those numbers should be viewed in the context of his shorter average fight time and the level of opposition he has faced, but they remain impressive.

Lopes’ durability, experience, and power should be major factors. He is also the better grappler on paper, although Garcia’s unusual style could make the grappling exchanges less predictable than expected.

I believe the fight reaches the scorecards, with damage serving as the deciding factor in Lopes’ favor.

Regardless of the result, this is an excellent matchup and an ideal way to start the event.

Prediction: Diego Lopes by decision.

Final Thoughts

UFC Freedom 250 is unquestionably a historic event.

Whether the political theater enhances or distracts from the fights remains to be seen, but the White House setting guarantees that the show will attract an enormous audience.

It will bring longtime fans, first-time viewers, dignitaries, celebrities, political arguments, bad analysis, and possibly Kid Rock together for one strange night of cage fighting.

Once it is over, everyone can finally stop complaining about it and begin preparing for the next unavoidable spectacle: the return of Conor McGregor.

Yay.

Whenever fights with mass appeal come along, they bring in a wave of people who maybe never watched fights, used to watch fights but fell off for whatever reason, or are just casual fans.

Personally, I think the MMA community uses the term “casual fan” far too much. There are a lot of fight fans who watch a ton of fights and just have consistently terrible takes. Sometimes those fans lean more toward the betting angle of the fights, but sometimes they don’t.

I think of a casual fan as someone who tunes in for the big fights with a recognizable name. In the UFC in 2026, that can be more difficult to identify because there are fewer fighters with mass appeal like Chuck Liddell, Tito Ortiz, Anderson Silva, Chael Sonnen, GSP, Brock Lesnar, Forrest Griffin, Stephan Bonnar, Conor McGregor, and yes, Ronda Rousey. COVID can also get a special shout-out.

What I’m getting at is this: when these waves of new viewers tune in for something big, you better brace yourself for some really low-IQ takes. It happens every single time, and Rousey vs. Carano is no different.

The UFC Still Isn’t as Familiar as Hardcore Fans Think

I think a lot of people will understand this, but I know for a fact many of you don’t: there are tons of people who just don’t really know anything about the UFC.

It has gotten better over time, but there are still people who need clarity when someone says “the UFC.”

“Oh, is that the fighting thing? They fight in a cage?”

A lot of people don’t know who Dana White is, but they might know Ronda Rousey. They may have seen some highlights here and there, but especially today, social media can be so specifically curated that you can craft exactly what you want to watch and have fed to you all the time. So it doesn’t surprise me at all if someone doesn’t know jack shit about this sport.

I also think Dana White being so heavily involved with Trump piques some curiosity about who he is and what the UFC is for someone who literally never paid any attention to this sport.

Why Ronda vs. Gina Was Different

What is unique about Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano is that there is an audience that is familiar with Ronda Rousey. She casts a very wide net of fans, many of whom were loyal to her.

The hardcores like me are going to watch her fight because we watch every fucking fight, and a Netflix card is interesting. Ronda has a fan base that tuned in to watch her, and after she retired, they stopped watching. So we are going to get those people back, and they are probably going to watch because it’s on fucking Netflix.

Had this been a PPV, I don’t think it would’ve done well. Maybe it would have done decent numbers for a PPV in 2026, but nowhere near the numbers they got by showing it on Netflix.

Let’s also keep in mind that many people who are even kind of familiar with Ronda Rousey may have only ever watched fights at a sports bar while they were inebriated, with a friend who watched fights, or with an ex-significant other. They never really got familiar with the UFC product during that time.

Besides, if you tuned into a Ronda Rousey fight, it only lasted so long. Rarely did her fights go past round one.

I’d also like to point out that a majority of people tuned in for Rousey vs. Holm and Rousey vs. Nunes. They heard about this judoka bad bitch mowing through everyone, and then she got knocked out. Twice in a row.

I should also mention that maybe there are some fans who only know Ronda from WWE, but that cannot be too significant a number.

Gina Carano’s Appeal

As far as Gina Carano, enough time has passed that a lot of people do not really know who Gina Carano is. Not the fighting Gina Carano, anyway.

And those who did? Come on, guys. It was a flash in the pan. It only lasted a couple of years, if that, but it happened during a time when MMA was gaining tons of momentum: 2008 and 2009.

The rest know her from The Mandalorian or Deadpool. But she is attractive, so that makes up for a lot. It was her appeal in 2008, and it is still the appeal now.

Why People Thought It Was the UFC

So Netflix, Ronda Rousey, Gina Carano, and yes, even Jake Paul, open the floodgates for fair-weather fans, casual fans, and new viewers. A majority of them think, or thought, they were watching the UFC.

They do not have product familiarity because they just don’t watch. I know, shocking for some of you, but it is a fact. I can tell you this with 100% certainty.

It doesn’t matter that Bruce Buffer isn’t announcing, that Joe Rogan isn’t there, or that there is a black canvas or a WWE-style LCD screen tunnel. A lot more people who don’t watch are simply more familiar with professional wrestling than MMA. Add a gimmicky-looking LCD walkout entrance to the mix, and even subconsciously, it feels a bit funky.

Why the Finish Wasn’t Surprising

Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano lasts 17 seconds. Ronda doesn’t even throw Gina to the canvas. She double-legs her, gets the armbar, and it’s done.

Guess who isn’t surprised? People like you and me.

The people who are surprised, or maybe even skeptical, are not people like you and me. The hardcore and regular MMA fans are not surprised by this. Everyone else? Probably skeptical, confused, and maybe they just think it’s outright fake and move on.

You know what else I didn’t stop to consider? Did people even know why these two were fighting?

Sure, there were countdown videos and stuff, but the broadcast didn’t do the greatest job of explaining it. Even then, it really doesn’t make much sense. They both were gone for a long time, and now they want to fight each other. A fight that could’ve been but never was, and now here it is?

Well, I suppose that kind of makes sense.

Had MVP and Netflix told the story of Ronda Rousey and Gina Carano more accurately, I don’t think anyone would have been surprised by the outcome. This is a classic case of Y’all Must Have Forgot.

The “I Told You So” Reaction

What I find funny is the hardcore fans and media saying “I told you so” when the fight ended quickly and early. It’s like, who are you flexing to? Anyone who follows you already knew this.

I left some room for pageantry. Maybe Ronda would want to prove something about her stand-up. Maybe she would make it a touch more dramatic. Maybe.

But since she didn’t, and since it was strictly business, it shows exactly why this fight was not fixed. That is exactly how it would go down every time if Ronda executed a no-bullshit approach to the fight.

A fixed fight is predetermined. It is secretly arranged. Someone agrees to something. Some say rigged, but these two were not under any obligation to the promotion. No one was forced into or pigeonholed into taking this fight. That was kind of the whole thing about this event. MVP was supposedly treating fighters fairly.

Ronda Rousey was highly favored, and the outcome was highly predictable.

If this fight had been rehearsed, it would have looked ridiculous. You’ve seen these two act. It does not look good, and that is with a script and months, if not years, of production.

If you think this fight was fixed, I actually understand the circumstances that would lead you to such a conclusion. But it would not look that clean.

Why This Fight Happened

Earlier, I asked why these two were fighting. I know why.

Sure, part of it is that it was a fight people did talk about. When Ronda was coming up, and even at her peak, a Ronda vs. Gina fight was mentioned from time to time.

It strikes me as strange that some who claim to be tenured fans say it wasn’t. It was.

Now, the hype and anticipation around it were basically non-existent because Gina would never commit. Sometimes you’d hear about talks with Gina and Dana, but it never really culminated in anything.

It was also the general consensus, again among fans like me and those who actively watched, that Rousey would decimate Gina Carano. Gina was doing movie shit. She used the attention from fighting to move on to other things. There was no reason to go backward.

We wanted to see Rousey vs. Cyborg. Even Gina fought Cyborg. But that’s the fight we wanted and the one that was being talked about.

Image Laundering

Why this fight took place, and why it made sense for both Ronda Rousey and Gina Carano, is what I call image laundering.

It is the primary reason. Sure, Ronda fights her hero, Gina loses weight and gets healthy, and it’s a fight they both wanted. All of that is cute and true. But in my opinion, it is image laundering first, money second, and everything else is not even close.

It is what I thought before, and it is what I think now.

Ronda Rousey’s career did not end the way she wanted it to, and her relationship with the media and fans tanked because of how she handled her losses. Anyone who was around for the buildup to Ronda vs. Amanda Nunes remembers this, too.

So Ronda comes back against someone with a name, a pioneer in Gina Carano, and gets to leave on a win. She can remind everyone who she is, or who she thinks she is, at the very least.

She gets one last taste of fame, and the fans do as well. Absence makes the heart grow fonder, all that shit.

Now she is arguably in a better spot to do something else, whether it’s another fight, promoting, making comic books, or whatever else. Or she can go back to retirement. Either way, she is now in a better position than she was before.

Gina Carano’s Version of Image Laundering

Gina Carano is the exact same thing.

I’m not going to get into the politics of what Gina Carano said that got her canceled. For someone who wants to tell stories, as she puts it, she really went about trying to make a point or statement in the dumbest way possible by essentially retweeting or posting someone else’s viewpoint that she agreed with.

Then later on, she used Star Wars memes or pictures to further drive her viewpoint and opinion on hot-button social and political topics at the time.

And it’s like, why?

Is there no one to advise you or have your best interest in mind? Is there not a more creative, better, smarter, more lucrative approach to saying what you want to say, Gina? Instead of shitposting?

It’s really quite remarkable.

So she comes back after a settlement with Disney, and essentially, what I think this is about is vindication.

“Look, I may have been beaten down by the system, but I am not broken. I am stronger than I’ve ever been. I stand by what I said and who I am. To prove that, I’ll get into the cage with one of the all-time greatest to ever do it in women’s MMA, stand before the media, and stake my claim. And by the way, if anyone is listening, I’d really like to act again or maybe even direct. Wink wink, Netflix. Wink wink.” - Not a real Gina Carano quote but what I think she tells herself in her mind 😂

So that’s what they did.

Gina Carano was not going to win this fight unless Ronda Rousey made a mistake by trying to compensate for something or putting on too much theatrics.

Gina Carano spent a very long time just getting into shape. Fighters who actively fight and are in shape will tell you there is a difference between being in shape and being in fight shape. There is no way Gina was in fight shape.

I think Gina came in with a game plan. I think she trained for all the scenarios. She was at a great camp. I truly believe she did wake up at 3 a.m. and think of all the ways the fight could go, and prepared for those things.

But so did everyone else who fought Ronda. And those were active fighters.

Thoughts on the Event Overall

A couple of last things now that this event is over: I enjoyed the card overall. It reminded me of a Strikeforce/Bellator hybrid. The production was good as far as the in-arena look.

I respect Mauro Ranallo and what he does, but ever since he started doing Jake Paul events from the beginning, I just haven’t been a huge fan of his style these days.

What would you call it? Figures of speech? Hyperbole? Idiomatic comparisons?

Like, “He tapped faster than a credit card” or “folded like a lawn chair.”

I get why he uses them, and I admire the creativity, but the older he gets, the dumber they sound. And it is just constant.

I know that is a personal opinion, and maybe it works for some people and for the masses, but I think I strive for a much more minimal and subdued approach to commentary these days. I want dead air from the commentary booth more often so that void can be filled with the sound of the crowd, and even more so, the sound of feet on the canvas, the punches, and the cage itself.

I love a two-man booth, but Mauro can really count for two people.

The pacing sucked, so we got too much Ariel Helwani. Fighters are so terrible at talking anyway that the last thing I want is more of that post-fight. Too much Ariel everywhere.

If he’s going to be involved, I wish it were more in the storytelling aspect leading up to a fight because Netflix-MVP dropped the ball on that. Their promo packages and explanations of who these fighters are and what they’ve done were terrible.

Granted, they’re not going to get clearance to use any UFC-owned media, but still. Tell a better story, especially with the amount of time between fights.

I enjoyed the prelims. Everyone is right about squash matches, but nobody talked about David Mgoyan vs. Albert Morales, which I thought was really good matchmaking. It was a challenging fight for David, but not one he couldn’t win. It was a tough but passable test for a prospect.

That should’ve been talked about like Jason Jackson, the Phumi Adriano fight, or Namo and Jake.

Fazil looked good. Parnasse was fun. You all know the talking points of this card at this stage.

I loved the black canvas. Nate’s blood looked awesome, almost cartoonish, on the black canvas.

I’m not a fan of calling it the hexagon. Just call it a cage.

I get why they do it, but it’s too diet-UFC sounding for me. I don’t mind the hexagon itself because if you use an octagon, then broadcasters are going to say “octagon,” and then they’ll have to pay the UFC for infringing on the trademark.

I guess I’m looking for a promotion that does better storytelling and finds more unique, creative ways to tell stories. Less bells and whistles. Less fabricated beef and all that garbage.

Make it look cool and keep it minimal.

They can do way more with a more focused and impactful approach because they won’t put on as many events as the UFC.

And less Jake Paul, too. You let him talk too much, and he sounds stupid as fuck.

Anyways, decent overall. Looking forward to more.

Unusual but very exciting card. I did pretty poorly on my picks—going 3/5 on the main card and 2/7 on the prelims. To be fair, the fights I actually tape-studied, I got right. The rest I just tailed. I’m going to jump all over the place, so strap in.

Jiri made one of the lowest-IQ decisions I’ve ever seen in MMA. He started off doing okay, but Carlos was already picking him apart. Then Carlos tears his ACL or something and can barely stand. Jiri starts attacking the other leg, which was smart, but then… decides, “You know what, I’m going to brawl with this guy.” Of course, he stands right in front of a check left hook and gets knocked out.

The Gastelum outcome was not what I expected. I know people hate on Kelvin, and I know Luque is underrated—even with the brain injury that people keep bringing up—but I still felt like Gastelum should’ve blasted Luque into another universe. Maybe actually doing tape study would’ve swayed me otherwise, but I have a bit of a delusional outlook on Gastelum. Pyfer did a number on Kelvin, and his chin looks like it might be gone now. He really had a ton of potential and was one of my favorite fighters to come out of TUF.

A lot of fans—and even the UFC broadcast booth—took issue with the scoring of Mederos vs. Padilla. Initially, it was announced as a majority decision win for Padilla, but later in the broadcast it was corrected to a draw. A lot of people were upset that a judge could even score it for Mederos.

On my personal scorecard (which you can see below), I had two rounds for Mederos, and with the point deduction, that made it a draw. If you actually watched the fight without listening to Joe Rogan and DC talking over it, it’s pretty clear why a draw is a reasonable outcome. Padilla had a lot of output, but most of it was leg kicks and jabs that didn’t do much damage. When they exchanged in the pocket, Mederos held his own and landed the better shots.

Also, if you use a real-time scoring approach like I do, you’re less likely to get caught up in narratives about how a round “felt.” Just because Padilla may have finished strong doesn’t mean he won the round—there were still 4:50 of action that mattered. I have no issue with someone scoring it for Padilla or Mederos. The rounds were much closer than Rogan and DC made them seem, especially in hindsight. They made it sound like Mederos had no business being competitive, which just wasn’t the case.

Suarez getting a submission victory is huge. She had a really tough first round—got dropped but survived.

Gamrot looked exceptional. He was on another level.

Randy Brown completely gassed after Holland’s submission attempt. Credit to him for surviving, but he was done. Holland looked good, but he should’ve finished Brown, who had nothing to offer offensively or defensively at that point. Brown just hugged him to survive, and Holland spent more time talking than working to break free. Ridiculous.

Pico had a rocky first round but managed to outclass and outwork Pitbull in the second and third. I don’t come away thinking much differently about Pico. He was close to getting knocked out—it was there. If Pitbull had any real killer instinct, he could’ve won. That said, Pico showed composure and stuck to his game plan. Still, Pico should’ve gotten the finish—that would’ve been a big statement.

There’s too much to say about Hokit vs. Blaydes. People are right—it was one of the best heavyweight fights in a long time. Hokit showed great conditioning and durability, but I do have concerns. Blaydes isn’t much of a puncher. He has some power, but for his size, you’d expect more knockouts. Hokit was getting rocked at times, and against a true power puncher, that could’ve been a problem. That said, his conditioning will take him far—especially if he’s fighting someone like Derrick Lewis, who tends to gas out.

I was very impressed by Costa. I was not impressed by Reyes or Walker.

The most important fight of the night for me: Cub Swanson. He wins in spectacular fashion against Nate Landwehr. I was a bit surprised—Landwehr is tough and usually survives early adversity, but he was getting dominated. I think he got dropped multiple times. Herb Dean mercifully stopped it, and Landwehr was still trying to wrestle him.

They put together a solid video package for Cub—by UFC standards, anyway. Honestly, I think that might be the best retirement win of all time. Better than Chiesa’s, and the fight itself was better too.

Thank you, Cub Swanson.

Radtke vs. Prado

Pick: Prado

Round 1:
Prado opened with very effective striking—body hooks, body kicks, and clean hooks to the head. Radtke was pushed back to the fence but did well to get the fight to the ground. Clear advantage once it hit the mat. He took the back, controlled most of the round, and landed some damage late.
Score: 10-9 Radtke

Round 2:
Prado looked noticeably slower and a bit fatigued. He ate a jab and was taken down again, with Radtke ending up on his back. Prado recovered into guard and landed a heavy elbow from the top. Radtke returned fire with an elbow from bottom that opened a bad cut—Prado was bleeding heavily. I still scored this 10-9 Prado, though most will likely give it to Radtke.

Round 3:
Prado was deducted a point for an eyepoke. He started strong, defending multiple takedowns, but then jumped for a guillotine—poor decision. It was close, but Radtke escaped and ended up on top. You could argue the round for Prado, but it likely doesn’t matter.

Result: Radtke via Decision

Gastelum vs. Luque

Round 1:
Missed the beginning. Gastelum had control with a front headlock early. Luque then dropped him with a right hook and locked in a D’Arce choke. Gastelum tapped. Very surprising outcome.

Result: Luque via Submission

Mederos vs. Padilla

Pick: Mederos

Round 1:
Very clean round for Padilla—sharp Muay Thai, strong pressure, and technical striking. He took an elbow that caused a cut, but otherwise dominated.
Score: 10-9 Padilla

Round 2:
Padilla maintained high activity, but Mederos came alive—more volume and better exchanges.
Score: 10-9 Mederos

Round 3:
Same pressure from Padilla, but I thought Mederos edged the exchanges again. I personally had it a draw at 28-28.

Official Result: Padilla via Majority Decision (29-27, 29-27, 28-28)
Correction: Fight ruled a Draw

Suarez vs. Godinez

Pick: Suarez

Round 1:
Godinez dropped Suarez early. Suarez recovered, secured a takedown, and controlled. Many scored it for Godinez based on damage, but I gave it to Suarez for combined control and damage.
Score: 10-9 Suarez

Round 2:
Suarez got it to the ground, took the back, and finished with a rear-naked choke.

Result: Suarez via Submission (Round 2)

Gamrot vs. Ribovics

Pick: Ribovics

Round 1:
Competitive striking early, but Gamrot secured a takedown and controlled the remainder.
Score: 10-9 Gamrot

Round 2:
Another takedown from Gamrot, followed by an arm triangle finish.

Result: Gamrot via Submission (Round 2)

Holland vs. Brown

Pick: Brown

Round 1:
Holland brutally attacked Brown’s lead leg—noticeable swelling developed. Brown may have been dropped by a left hook. Holland controlled on top, but Brown landed 12-6 elbows, upkicks, and threatened submissions.
Score: 10-9 Holland

Round 2:
Competitive striking, but Holland locked in a D’Arce attempt. Brown escaped but looked completely exhausted by the end.
Score: 10-9 Holland

Round 3:
Brown was extremely fatigued, mostly clinching and holding against the cage. Holland did just enough with strikes to edge it. Some may score this for Brown.
Score: 10-9 Holland

Result: Holland via Decision

Pitbull vs. Pico

Pick: Pico

Round 1:
Pitbull had success countering, especially off Pico’s jab. Pico landed a solid takedown. Close round.
Score: 10-9 Pitbull

Round 2:
Excellent round from Pico—busy jab, clean counters, and combinations. Finished with a strong takedown.
Score: 10-9 Pico

Round 3:
Pico continued to outclass Pitbull on the feet. Pitbull was too hesitant.
Score: 10-9 Pico

Result: Pico via Decision

Swanson vs. Landwehr

Pick: Swanson

Round 1:
Swanson dominated completely.

Reyes vs. Walker

Pick: Reyes

Round 1:
Reyes started sharp, but Walker’s leg kicks took over as the round progressed.
Score: 10-9 Walker

Round 2:
Similar pattern. Reyes applied more pressure. Based on trusted input:
Score: 10-9 Reyes

Round 3:
Difficult to follow closely. Low-quality, uneventful round. Unclear scoring.

Result: Reyes via Split Decision

Blaydes vs. Hokit

Pick: Blaydes

Rounds 1–3:
All rounds were chaotic and high-paced. Overall, I think Hokit edged it on volume, though Blaydes stayed competitive.

Score: 29-28 Hokit

Result: Hokit via Decision

Murzakanov vs. Costa

Pick: Murzakanov

Round 1:
Costa landed strong inside body kicks and scored an eyepoke pause. Murzakanov had moments, but Costa dropped him (possibly a slip) and controlled on top.
Score: 10-9 Costa

Round 2:
Costa slowed significantly. Murzakanov took over with pressure and damage. Brief grappling exchange with a scarf hold attempt.
Score: 10-9 Murzakanov (close)

Round 3:
Costa landed a massive head kick. Murzakanov barely survived.

Jiri vs. Ulberg

Round 1:
Ulberg’s leg kicks were effective early. Jiri had explosive moments, but Ulberg avoided danger well. Ulberg appeared to injure his knee at one point. Jiri invited a pocket exchange, made questionable decisions, and was caught with a left hook. Knocked out and finished on the ground.

Result: Ulberg via KO

Note: Extremely poor fight IQ moment from Jiri.

Personally, I do have to ground myself and look at the harsh reality of most MMA retirements… which is that there are generally no MMA retirements. The sport retires the fighter before the fighter retires the sport. And fairy tale endings are almost non-existent. Even the good ones come with asterisks.

Cub has been rocked in a lot of his recent fights. He isn’t moving as quickly or sharply as he used to. But will it hurt my heart any less knowing a possible knockout loss is completely reasonable tomorrow night? Unfortunately, no. It will hurt my poor little heart. And these feelings, I’m quite aware, are 100% selfish because it’s the end of an era for me, as the sport I fell in love with is slowly aging out. All the phenomenal, entertaining fighters from days of yore have mostly left the MMA space at this point.

Cub is my all-time favorite fighter. If he’s getting old, I’m getting old.

That being said, Cub at 42 years old looks really good given his last performances and the division he is in. It’s really an underrated feat, as Cub has been quietly performing at a high level. Even if it’s been win, lose, win, lose… he’s still getting wins—and KNOCKOUT wins at that. It’s impressive. Fighters should be studying his career—the pros and cons, his longevity, and his craft.

Cub didn’t always do it right and missed out on some very big opportunities. He was in a prime position to fight Conor McGregor and never got a fight with Urijah Faber. He was never able to win that one fight that would’ve earned him a title shot. But god damn it, Cub stayed true to himself, never sold out, faced the elite of the division, and even beat some of them—and it was ALWAYS entertaining.

I’ve never missed a single Cub Swanson fight in the UFC. I missed his early WEC fights, but caught on later.

Cub Swanson via Round 1 KO/TKO is what I have selected on Verdict, but being completely transparent, I may switch that to Round 2 because Nate Landwehr is one tough mother fucker. In all likelihood, it’ll go to a decision.

This should be a war.

My UFC 327 Full Card Picks

Wow… if my picks are any indication of what might go down tomorrow, this card is gonna be insane. I also haven’t checked the odds to see if I picked more favs or underdogs. 😂

Follow me on Verdict

Enjoy the fights!

Steve Asplund is the most interesting heavyweight in MMA right now aside from Gable Steveson, and I’d argue Steve is just more interesting as a person. Fat guy loses weight and starts fighting. He body-shames himself, but in a fun way. In addition to having an interesting story and charisma, he is a fun action fighter, which is seriously lacking in this division. Tom Aspinall or Josh Hokit is probably the next best action fighter

So although heavyweight is still in shambles, there is some movement in a positive direction, but it still is on a very shaky foundation. Asplund has skills and I think he can go much farther if he tightens a few things up. Very solid chin, decent movement, cardio, and surprisingly good takedown defense. Good enough to thwart Gable Steveson? Probably not in a direct shot, but he may be able to keep him away with his hands.

But I still think the UFC, as a whole, is trending downward when it comes to card quality and matchmaking.

I saw someone on X say, “Where is everyone who spent all week complaining that UFC fights are dead?” But that’s a stupid argument. I’d compare the state of the UFC to global warming: average temperatures can rise over time even if a particular day, or even a particular year, is cooler than usual. One exception doesn’t disprove the larger trend.

The same applies here. Just because this card was solid doesn’t mean the UFC isn’t putting on weaker cards overall. It is. One good event doesn’t erase months of underwhelming matchmaking.

And this was a Fight Night, not even a numbered event. There weren’t many major names on the card, yet it still delivered. If anything, that raises more questions about why so many supposedly bigger events have been so weak.

There are constantly dumb takes, but I figured highlighting that one was worth it…

Anyways, on to the next.