The Meta APEX is hosting another event this weekend in Las Vegas and I gotta say… I’m not mad at it. This card has a little bit of everything I enjoy, and I’m not above a good hate-watch either.
| STAT | COUNT / LEADER | FIGHTER(S) |
|---|---|---|
| Oldest | 39 | Raoni Barcelos |
| Youngest | 21 | Raul Rosas Jr. |
| Most UFC Bouts | 17 | Ricky Simon |
| Most Seniority | Apr. 21, 2018 | Ricky Simon |
| UFC Debuts | 1 | Luis Hernandez |
| DWCS Vets | 9 | Raul Rosas Jr., Rodolfo Bellato, Montel Jackson, Ricky Simon, John Castañeda, Sedriques Dumas, Vanessa Demopoulos, Tina Black, Luis Hernandez |
| TUF Vets | 5 | Brady Hiestand, Mahammadali Osmanli, Ilimbek Akylbek, Melissa Amaya, Tina Black |
| 5-Round Fights | 1 | Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Raoni Barcelos |
Vanessa Demopoulos vs. Yazmin Jauregui
Vanessa Demopoulos is a scrappy strawweight who does her best work in the grappling exchanges, especially off her back where she’s always hunting submissions. Her striking is more about pressure and toughness than being super technical.
She’s hit a rough stretch lately, though, dropping three straight after a pretty solid run before that.
Yazmin Jauregui is an aggressive striker who likes to pressure and put combinations together. She carries pretty good power for the division and is usually at her best when she can keep the fight standing.
She’s coming off a submission loss to Ketlen Souza and has been out for a while, so this is a bit of a comeback fight for her.
There aren’t a lot of reasons to like Demopoulos in this matchup. She’s the older fighter, she has a poor striking differential, and she comes in on a losing streak. Jauregui is clearly the better striker, and that alone may be enough to carry her to either a finish or a comfortable decision.
That being said, there are a few things that give me pause. Older fighters have been doing surprisingly well lately, Jauregui hasn’t fought since 2024, and Demopoulos has to know she’s entering must-win territory. I wouldn’t be surprised to see her come out with some serious veteran urgency and throw everything she has into making this fight ugly.
Still, I think Jauregui is too sharp on the feet and should be able to win enough exchanges to take it.
John Castaneda vs. Alatengheili
John Castaneda is a switch-stance bantamweight who spends a lot of time southpaw. He mixes kicks and boxing combinations well, stays active with his footwork, and blends wrestling into his offense without forcing it. He’s generally pretty versatile and comfortable fighting at different ranges.
Alatengheili is a compact orthodox fighter with a strong wrestling base and a pretty heavy counter right hand. He likes to stay planted, pressure forward, and turn fights into physical exchanges where he can mix in clinch work and takedowns.
I had the privilege of being live at a lot of John Castaneda’s fights when he was first starting out in Minnesota. He had a pretty sick head-kick KO and very good wrestling. That hasn’t changed. His primary focus is to stay on the outside and pick his opponents apart. When his opponent can cut off the cage, apply pressure, and land bombs, that’s when he gets into trouble. Alatengheili can certainly put Castaneda’s lights out if he can time that right hand.
However, I’m biased, but I also believe Castaneda is just the better fighter here. I think his wrestling is good enough to keep Alatengheili off of him, and I think his counterstriking is good enough to hurt Alatengheili. The smart play is probably Castaneda by decision, but since I’m cheering him on, I think Castaneda finds a head kick from southpaw and puts Alatengheili’s lights out to finally get that highlight reel finish he’s been searching for in the UFC.
Montel Jackson vs. Ricky Simon
Montel Jackson is a long southpaw with a 75-inch reach who does a good job keeping fights at his preferred range. He’s pretty accurate, doesn’t absorb much clean offense, and carries real power in the straight left and counters. He’ll wrestle too, but lately his striking has become the more noticeable part of his game.
Ricky Simon is an orthodox pressure wrestler who wants to make fights physical. He’s constantly looking to close distance, chain takedowns together and keep opponents working along the fence, but he’s also developed a pretty functional boxing game over the years. His pace and wrestling volume are still the main things that define him.
This is an interesting fight because it’s a rematch, and it should give us some good insight into where these two are at in their careers. You have to keep in mind that Jackson took their first fight on short notice, and Ricky, in short, was able to wrestle Jackson to a unanimous decision victory. That was eight years ago, though, and I don’t see that happening again.
Perhaps it’s just the style matchups or the opponents he’s faced, but Ricky’s wrestling doesn’t seem like as much of a threat as it once was. Even if it is, Montel has had ample time to prepare for this fight, and I think he’ll be ready to defend against Ricky’s wrestling.
At range, I don’t see Ricky having a lot of success against Montel Jackson. I think Jackson is the better striker, he’s a southpaw, and he has the height and reach advantage. If their shared Barcelos matchup is any indicator, Montel also fared much better than Simon did.
The tough part is deciding whether Jackson gets it done inside the distance or if this goes to a decision. I really want to give Ricky that respect, but Jackson has the potential to show out here. I’ll lean into a stoppage as Ricky tries to close the distance.
Elves Brener vs. Josiah Harrell
Elves Brener is an orthodox action fighter with a strong jiu-jitsu background, but he’s become much more willing to just stand and trade in the UFC. He throws a lot of volume, mixes in kicks and carries decent power, although he can be pretty hittable when exchanges get wild. He’s also very durable and tends to stay dangerous even when fights start getting ugly.
Josiah Harrell is a compact southpaw with a wrestling base who likes to pressure, close distance and turn fights into scrambles. He’s a strong finisher with both knockouts and submissions on his record, and he generally fights with a pretty aggressive pace. There’s still not a ton of UFC tape on him, though, with his only Octagon appearance being the first-round loss to Jacobe Smith.
I don’t know what to do about this fight. If “The Muscle Shark” wasn’t an awful enough nickname for Sean Sherk, we’ve got Josiah Harrell with “The Muscle Hamster.” Yikes.
Harrell was not dealt an easy debut fight by any means. Jacobe Smith not only knocked him out, but took the opportunity to continue smashing his head into the canvas, leaving Harrell drunkenly wandering the streets in the Land of Wind and Ghosts. For a minute, I thought referee Kerry Hatley was about to throw down with Smith himself.
I sorta kinda agree with Harrell being the slight favorite because of his sheer athleticism, but… Brener has fought the tougher competition, has the height advantage, and has the reach advantage. Josiah Harrell beating Melvin Guillard doesn’t do anything for me.
It’s an interesting fight for a card of this caliber, but I’ll give a slight nod to the underdog to be crafty enough to find a victory. Honestly, it could be a KO, but with how easily Jacobe Smith was able to move around on top, Brener may just find a submission. I’ll pick the club-and-sub for Brener to make it 12 submission victories on his record.
Rodolfo Bellato vs. Christian Edwards
Rodolfo Bellato is an orthodox light heavyweight who fights aggressively and carries a lot of finishing power. He throws in combination, is comfortable getting into firefights, and has a legit submission game if things hit the mat. He’s dangerous offensively, although he can be pretty hittable when he starts opening up.
Christian Edwards is a long southpaw who tends to fight more patiently from range. He uses straight punches and kicks well, has a solid grappling background, and generally looks to control distance rather than force a wild pace. He’s coming off a competitive UFC debut against Modestas Bukauskas.
I want to pluck my eyeballs out of my skull looking at their striking stats. This fight has the potential to get really weird if Rodolfo Bellato doesn’t get Edwards out of there early.
Personally, it’s not a fight I’m all that interested in, but my fingers are crossed that it ends early. However, I just have this strange feeling that Christian Edwards is going to slow things down, tie Bellato up when he comes crashing in, and turn this fight into a slog.
If it does come down to a decision, I think Rodolfo’s volume, power, and full camp at American Top Team will be enough for him to take it.
Rodolfo Vieira vs. Robert Bryczek
Rodolfo Vieira is an orthodox grappling specialist and still one of the more dangerous submission threats at middleweight. He wants to get his hands on you, force the fight down and work toward the back or arm-triangle. His striking has improved, but it’s still mostly there to get him into the grappling, and his cardio can become a factor when fights stay difficult for extended stretches.
Robert Bryczek is an orthodox power puncher who does his best work standing. He’s fairly patient, likes to counter and carries legitimate knockout power, especially with his right hand. He’s not a huge-volume striker, but he has solid takedown defense and generally wants to keep the fight at boxing range.
We go from one Rodolfo to another, and from light heavyweight to middleweight… and both of these guys are in the latter half of their 30s.
I have no real interest in this fight and don’t have a strong lean either way. I do feel like Vieira is a better grappler than Bryczek is a striker, though. This one smells like a decision stinker. I think Vieira will win by dictating where the fight takes place and controlling enough of the grappling exchanges to edge it out.
Brady Hiestand vs. Rinya Nakamura
Brady Hiestand is an orthodox pressure wrestler who likes to push a hard pace, chain takedowns together and keep opponents working in scrambles. He’s tough, persistent and tends to get stronger as fights go on, with his last two wins both coming by third-round finish. He hasn’t fought since submitting Garrett Armfield in June 2024.
Rinya Nakamura is a southpaw with a high-level wrestling background, but he’s also explosive on the feet and carries real finishing power. He’s quick in transitions, shoots well in open space and can suddenly change the fight with a big left hand or kick. He bounced back from his first career loss by stopping Nathan Fletcher with a liver kick in just over a minute.
I really like this matchup and I’m looking forward to it. It’s a total bummer that Hiestand has been away for nearly three years because of a knee injury, and for that reason alone, I just can’t pick him.
I think Nakamura is the better fighter, but they do have similar strengths. Hiestand is going to have to make this fight really ugly, and I believe he can. I’m just not sure how long he’ll be able to sustain it.
This could potentially be Fight of the Night in my eyes. A lot of it really depends on how Hiestand looks in his return.
Melissa Amaya vs. Tina Black
For the two TUF Finale fights, I have very little info. Tina Black looks to be the better, more technical fighter so I’d imagine her opponent is gonna have to make the fight ugly.
Mahammadali Osmanli vs. Ilimbek Akylbek
I saw a clip of Osmanli hitting a buggy choke and that is good enough evidence for me to pick him.
Luis Hernandez vs. Sedriques Dumas
Sedriques Dumas is a long, orthodox kickboxer who likes to work from range and tends to fight at a pretty measured pace. He uses his length well, mixes in kicks and will wrestle when it’s there, but his defensive grappling has been a problem. He’s coming off back-to-back submission losses.
Luis Hernandez is an aggressive southpaw who throws with a lot of power and likes to crash into the clinch and grapple. He’s especially dangerous around the front headlock and has a good submission game once things hit the mat. He’s 8-0 with all eight wins by finish and is making his UFC debut just 11 days after earning his contract on Contender Series.
This is a very interesting situation since Dumas was originally scheduled to fight Mickey Gall and now gets recent DWCS winner Luis Hernandez instead. Dumas has a criminal background and Hernandez is a cop, which is honestly hilarious. I was leaning Dumas against Gall, but in this matchup I’m not so certain.
Hernandez will likely try to get this fight down to the mat and look for a submission because that is definitely where Dumas is weakest. The problem is that Dumas has had a full camp, he is much bigger physically, doesn’t need to cut down to middleweight, and Luis just fought 11 days ago. Dumas may be despised by 99% of the MMA community, but he has some real advantages here.
That being said, the dude lost to Jackson McVey. The height and reach advantage may be significant, but that only really matters if the takedown defense is there. At 33%, I don’t think it’s going to be enough to keep Luis from plowing through, closing the distance, and getting Dumas to the mat.
Norma Dumont vs. Ailin Perez
Norma Dumont is an orthodox, fairly measured striker who does a good job managing distance and doesn’t take a ton of clean damage. She’s not a big finisher, but she’s technically sound, physically strong in the clinch, and comfortable mixing in takedowns when they’re there. She had a six-fight winning streak snapped in her last fight against Joselyne Edwards.
Ailin Perez is a switch-stance pressure grappler who wants to turn fights into wrestling-heavy affairs. She shoots a lot, chains takedowns together well and is very good at holding position once she gets on top. Her striking has improved, but it’s mostly there to help her close distance and get into her grappling. She’s won six straight coming into this one.
Unlike most of the UFC fanbase, I’m not a hater of WMMA. WMMA hates me. That being said, I do find Ailin Perez to be Rita Repulsa, and that has likely swayed my pick every time she fights. You probably know where I’m going with this.
Yes, I’m picking Ailin Perez. It’s a tale as old as time: pick against a fighter, they keep winning, finally pick that fighter, and then they lose. I really wouldn’t mind seeing Ailin Perez lose, but I can’t deny that she is relentless. I don’t think Dumont is going to be able to keep her off of her long enough or do enough damage to sway the judges.
I think the control time will be significantly in Perez’s favor, if she doesn’t find a submission first. We shall see.
Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Raoni Barcelos
Raul Rosas Jr. is a southpaw pressure grappler who wants to close distance, chain takedowns together and spend as much of the fight as possible controlling from top position or hunting the back. His striking is improving, but wrestling and scrambling are still clearly the engine of his game. He’s won five straight and most recently took a decision over Rob Font.
Raoni Barcelos is an orthodox veteran who’s genuinely well-rounded, with sharp boxing, good kicks and very strong defensive wrestling. He’s patient, technically sound and hard to hold down, with an 88% takedown defense rate in the UFC. He’s also on a five-fight winning streak, including recent decisions over Montel Jackson, Ricky Simon and Cody Garbrandt.
Listen, I understand Barcelos is 39, but I clearly underestimated him and his peptides. The guy has been doing cool shit on the feet and winning fights. Rosas Jr. is a young, powerful donk, but I’m still trying to figure out exactly what his path to victory is here.
Is it to take Barcelos down and simply control him? I think he’s going to have a lot of trouble doing that. Skill for skill, I think Barcelos is the better grappler and the better striker. It’s a five-round fight, but Barcelos only needs to win three of those five, and I really don’t see Rosas submitting him.
So, in my mind, the Rosas path probably looks something like a Chael Sonnen-esque performance: relentless pressure, repeated takedowns, and Barcelos eventually finding himself stuck in bad positions on his back. Maybe Rosas survives the submission attempts, keeps resetting, and Barcelos simply can’t find a way out. The problem is that Rosas still has to consistently get him there first.
That’s what makes this an intriguing matchup and a tough one to call. Despite all the logic and evidence I just so expertly provided, I think I still have to side with Rosas. You’d think I would have learned my lesson from the Payton Talbott fight, but apparently I haven’t. I’m still not completely sold on Barcelos, and although he has put together some really nice wins, I’m not convinced he can hold off a 21-year-old Rosas for five rounds.
Part of me is absolutely cheering for Barcelos to pull it off, but he can’t just keep turning back the clock and eating the young. We have standards and practices!
That does it for my breakdown and picks. If I change my mind I’ll say it on X and change it on Verdict! Thanks for the follow!
