UFC 331: VAN VS. PANTOJA 2

UFC 331 is upon us, and I feel like it arrived rather quickly. This card leaves a lot to be desired, and it took another hit when Moicano vs. Ortega fell off, with Ortega suffering a deep cut on his brow. Personally, that leaves me with very little interest in the event.

Fight Predictions

• Choi Doo-ho vs. Patricio Pitbull
• Joshua Van vs. Alexandre Pantoja II

If I’m ranking what I’m most excited for on the main card, it would be:

1. Choi vs. Pitbull
2. Van vs. Pantoja
3. Tsarukyan vs. Ruffy

The UFC has Menifeld vs. Baraniewski as the main card opener, and it really should be Gable Steveson vs. Sean Sharaf.

Remember when pay-per-view used to get us a solid, quality card? Then they started charging $80 for slop? Now we’ve traded all that in for free, insert-sponsor-here numbered events that are tough to distinguish from a Fight Night card.

Choi Doo-ho vs. Patricio Pitbull

What isn’t there to love about this fight? We’re talking about the Superboy!

What I really love about this fight is the clash of styles. Choi is very good at bringing the fight to his opponent and often pays for it, too. It’s a risk he willingly takes because he truly believes in his technique and power enough to dish out more damage than he absorbs.

I believe he’s tightened this up quite a bit and gotten better at weighing the risk vs. reward of the shots he chooses to absorb throughout a fight. He details it clearly on his YouTube channel. I highly recommend it:

I think Choi’s style could really present some interesting challenges and opportunities for Pitbull. Pitbull is much more of a counter fighter these days. Maybe I should say years, because he’s been fighting this karate style for quite some time now—a steady evolution from his earlier days as more of a pressure boxer.

That makes me wonder what’s going through Pitbull’s mind for this fight. He’s had three UFC fights and lost two of them. He’s 2-3 in his last five. He’s 39 years old and at an age, height, and reach disadvantage.

Speaking of age, he’s a tough, savvy veteran who has accomplished a lot in his career—a certified OG who started in 2004. One can debate “OG” with me, but ‘04 is still very early. He’s nearly in the 50 Fight Club!

All this to say, he’s up against it here.

Given where Choi is in his career, this is really the best he’s looked in a while—maybe ever. This Superboy can thump. So, is Pitbull going to get bopped by a heavy jab the entire fight? Get picked apart with more powerful strikes? Or is he going to put something together?

I think, as good as Pitbull is at setting traps and countering, Choi’s volume and pressure might be enough to turn the tide. If they aren’t, Choi’s power and damage will probably be the difference, either winning him the scorecards or getting him the finish.

I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t a little worried about Choi getting reckless and walking into something he doesn’t see. Even if he survived a hellacious onslaught from Daniel Santos, that doesn’t exempt him from getting his lights put out by a clean counter strike.

Do I favor that outcome? No. Does anyone else?

Choi is the strong favorite at -270, with Pitbull at +224.

I agree with the market for the most part: I favor Choi to win. I like him by knockout, but I could foresee him winning a decision, too. If Pitbull pulls off the upset, it’s likely by decision.

Still, +850 for Pitbull by KO/TKO? As much of a Choi fanboy as I am, he gets hit a lot, and he’s 35 years old. He has fallen to lesser fighters in the past (Jeremy Stephens) and has also struggled with proven veterans (Cub Swanson).

I’ve talked about this many times, but Choi was a moderate favorite against Swanson for that fight, and I picked Swanson.

In this fight, I think Patricio will need to change it up a bit to beat Choi. At 39 years old, that’s very difficult to do. A style becomes less malleable and more concrete.

The easiest prediction here is that this will be a banger, maybe starting off tense as they find their rhythm and timing.

My body is ready.

Pick: Choi Doo-ho by KO/TKO, Round 1

Joshua Van vs. Alexandre Pantoja II

Speaking of banger fights, Pantoja and Van were on their way to one before their first fight ended just 30 seconds in. Pantoja brought the fight right to Van, smashing the lead leg, following up with combinations, and eating the shots coming back at him.

As Pantoja pressed forward behind a throwaway 1-2, he followed with a head kick that glanced off Van’s shoulder. Van caught the leg and dumped Pantoja to the mat. As Pantoja went to post on his arm, his elbow dislocated and the fight was waved off.

At the time, I really felt Van’s run was about to come to a temporary halt. Pantoja seemed poised to ride his own momentum as champion while working toward a fifth title defense. Tragic outcome.

It’s not an ideal situation when you’re 36 years old and have to fight to regain a title you lost without actually being beaten. Van has the momentum, the youth, and the added benefit of knowing Pantoja no longer has the element of surprise.

Pantoja can no longer come in with that much aggression and those specific lead-leg attacks without expecting Van to have an immediate answer. At least in my opinion, we can’t assume Pantoja can do the exact same thing and get the same reaction.

Van has always struck me as someone more comfortable with instinct than analysis. Especially because he’s so young, his coaches can work on new patterns and reactions and tweak his game without old habits interfering too much.

The young pup is learning new tricks, and that malleability may be even more useful to his coaches with a second chance against Pantoja. All this time to re-analyze the first fight, reapproach it, and keep instilling the old game plan with minor tweaks? That’s a phenomenal opportunity for Van. Of course, Pantoja gets many of the same advantages, but with two caveats: he’s older and coming off an injury.

It’s very hard to pick against Van, even for me. I picked against him in the first fight, and I’m still not really sold on him as a championship fighter at this stage. I’m in the bucket that’s still skeptical of his ability to stay at the top. But there are a few things about his skill set that are undeniable, and his performance against Taira—who I also picked to beat him—gives me just enough reason to take Van over Pantoja.

For Pantoja, regaining his title isn’t the only historical achievement on the table. UFC.com notes that a win would put Pantoja alongside Brandon Moreno and Deiveson Figueiredo as the only flyweights to lose and later regain the UFC championship. (Source)

There’s another historical angle, too: if Pantoja beats Van, it would be only the fourth time in UFC history that a fighter at least 10 years older has dethroned an undisputed champion, and Pantoja would be the first fighter besides Randy Couture to do it.

It’s a tough one to call, and the odds reflect that. Pantoja opened as the favorite and is now a slight underdog. In a post-USADA world, I see nothing wrong with taking Pantoja at these odds. I’d rather just enjoy this one.

In the flyweight division, 16 title fights have ended inside the distance. Of those, 62.5% were submissions and 37.5% were KO/TKOs. I think Van is going to add to the KO/TKO percentage this weekend.

Pick: Joshua Van by KO/TKO, Round 1 — to make it official this time.