UFC 331 is upon us, and I feel like it arrived rather quickly. This card leaves a lot to be desired, and Moicano vs. Ortega has fallen off the card, with Ortega suffering a deep cut on his brow. Personally, that leaves me with little interest in this card.
If I’m ranking what I’m most excited for on the main card, it would be:
- Choi vs. Pitbull
- Van vs. Pantoja
- Tsarukyan vs. Ruffy
The UFC has Menifeld vs. Baraniewski as the main card opener, and it really should be Gable Steveson vs. Sean Sharaf.
Remember when pay-per-view would get us a solid, quality card way back in the day? Then they started charging $80 for slop? Now we’ve traded all that in for free, insert-sponsor-here numbered events that are tough to distinguish from a Fight Night card.
Choi Doo-ho vs. Patricio Pitbull
What isn’t there to love about this fight? We’re talking about the Superboy!
| DOO HO CHOI | PATRICIO PITBULL | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 17-4-1 | 37-9-0 |
| Age | 35 | 39 |
| Height | 5’10” | 5’6” |
| Reach | 70” | 67” |
| Weight | 145 lbs | 145 lbs |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| KO/TKO Wins | 14 | 12 |
| Submission Wins | 1 | 12 |
| Decision Wins | 2 | 13 |
| 1st-Round Finishes | 8 | 12 |
What I really love about this fight is the clash of styles. Choi is very good at bringing the fight to his opponent and often pays for it, too. This is a risky decision that he willingly makes because he truly believes in his technique and power to do more damage than what is coming back at him.
I believe he has tightened this up quite a bit and has analyzed the risk vs. reward of what shots he chooses to absorb throughout a fight. He details it clearly on his YouTube channel. I highly recommend it:
I think Choi’s style could really present some interesting challenges and opportunities for Pitbull. His style is much more that of a counter fighter these days. Perhaps I should say years, because he’s been fighting this karate style for quite some time now—a steady evolution from his earlier style as more of a pressure boxer.
This makes me wonder what is going on in Pitbull’s mind for this fight. He’s had three UFC fights, two of them losses. He’s 2-3 in his last five fights. He’s 39 years old and at an age, height, and reach disadvantage.
Speaking of age, he’s 39 years old. He’s a tough, savvy veteran who has accomplished a lot in his career, a certified OG who started in 2004. One can debate “OG” with me, but ‘04 is still very early. He’s nearly in the 50 Fight Club!
All this to say, he’s up against it here.
Given Choi’s circumstances, this is really the best he’s looked in a while—maybe ever. This Superboy can thump. So, is Pitbull going to get bopped by a heavy jab the entire fight? Get picked apart with more powerful strikes? Or is he going to put something together this fight? Can a veteran like Pitbull pull from his old style and meld it with his new(er) style?
| Statistic | Patricio Pitbull | Doo Ho Choi |
|---|---|---|
| Striking | ||
| Strikes Landed per Min. (SLpM) | 2.77 | 5.00 |
| Striking Accuracy | 45–46% | 55% |
| Strikes Absorbed per Min. (SApM) | 4.61 | 4.43 |
| Striking Defense | 56% | 57% |
| Grappling | ||
| Takedowns Avg. / 15 min. | 1.26 | 1.26 |
| Takedown Accuracy | 33%* | 53% |
| Takedown Defense | 74% | 59% |
| Submission Avg. / 15 min. | 0.5 | 0.5 |
I think, as much as Pitbull is good at setting traps and countering, Choi’s volume and pressure might be enough to turn the tide. But if it isn’t enough, Choi’s power and damage will probably be the factor to either get him the scorecard or finish the fight.
I would be lying if I said I wasn’t a little worried about Choi getting a little reckless and walking into something he doesn’t see. Even if he survived a hellacious onslaught from Daniel Santos, that doesn’t exempt him from getting his lights put out by a clean counter strike.
Do I favor that outcome? No. Does anyone else?
Choi is the strong favorite at -270, with Pitbull at +224.
| Outcome | Odds | Market read |
|---|---|---|
| Choi by KO/TKO/DQ | +130 | Most likely specific outcome |
| Choi by decision | +185 | Second-most likely |
| Pitbull by decision | +475 | Most likely Pitbull outcome |
| Choi by submission | +850 | Unlikely |
| Pitbull by KO/TKO/DQ | +850 | Unlikely |
| Pitbull by submission | +1300 | Least likely normal method |
I agree with the market consensus for the most part in that I favor Choi to win. I like him by knockout, but I could foresee him winning a decision, too. If Pitbull pulls off the upset, it’s likely by decision.
However, +850 for Pitbull by KO/TKO? For as much of a fanboy as I am for Choi, he does get hit a lot, and he’s 35 years old. He has fallen to lesser fighters in the past (Jeremy Stephens) and has also struggled with proven veterans (Cub Swanson).
I’ve talked about this many times, but Choi was a moderate favorite against Swanson for that fight, and I picked Swanson.
In this fight, I think Patricio will need to change it up a bit in order to defeat Choi, and at 39 years old, it’s very difficult to do. A style becomes less malleable and more concrete.
The easiest prediction to make is that this will likely be a banger of a fight, maybe starting off tense as they get their rhythm and timing.
My body is ready.
Pick: Choi Doo-ho by KO/TKO, Round 1
