A lot of fans are down on this card’s quality of fights. Putting that aside, it’s important to keep in mind this event is taking place in Salt Lake City, Utah, which is about 4,200 feet above sea level.
Natalia Silva vs. Wang Cong
Natalia Silva is a fast, movement-heavy striker with a taekwondo base who does a great job changing angles, mixing kicks and staying hard to read. She’s very comfortable fighting at range, but she’s also a legit submission threat if the fight hits the mat. She’s won 14 straight and is coming off wins over Rose Namajunas, Alexa Grasso and Jessica Andrade.
Wang Cong is a polished kickboxer and sanda fighter with very sharp hands, good timing and a pretty composed counter-striking game. She’s accurate, physically strong and usually does her best work when she can keep things technical on the feet. She’s won four straight since her only career loss, most recently beating Tracy Cortez.
Wang Cong is dangerous, especially early. She’s powerful, athletic, and definitely can hurt Silva if she can cage cut and land shots. But I think Silva is just a little more polished everywhere and gives her more to deal with, especially over five rounds.
I like Silva to keep moving, mix up her attacks, and slowly take over as the fight goes on. Wang will have her moments, but I trust Silva’s pace and consistency more.
Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Payton Talbott
Deiveson Figueiredo is a compact orthodox fighter with big power, sharp counters and a dangerous submission game. He’s still very explosive in short bursts and does a good job mixing hard low kicks with sudden level changes, but at bantamweight he’s been a little more measured than he was at 125. He’s coming off back-to-back losses to Umar Nurmagomedov and Song Yadong.
Payton Talbott is a tall, fluid switch-stance striker who likes to build combinations as the fight goes on. He throws a lot of volume, works well off straight punches and is dangerous when he starts getting opponents backed up, while still being comfortable scrambling or attacking on the ground. He’s rebounded from the Barcelos loss with decision wins over Felipe Lima and Henry Cejudo.
Figgy is still dangerous, has that veteran experience and I’m generally not one to be shy about picking the old guy. However, just like I picked Rosas Jr. to beat Barcelos not knowing how the hell he’d do it because Barcelos was clearly the better fighter, I sorta feel the same way about this one. Talbott is obviously better than Rosas, as well as being older and more experienced. Against Figgy, Talbott has got the height, reach and nine months of development. I want to give Figgy the respect that he’ll make it through 3 x 5’s but I think Talbott is going to surprise us and put him away. It seems like it’s time for Talbott to do what many think he should’ve done to Barcelos.
King Green vs. Esteban Ribovics
King Green is an orthodox boxer who fights with his hands low, relies heavily on timing and head movement, and loves making opponents miss so he can counter right back. He’s still throwing a ton of volume at 40 and has looked sharp lately, winning four straight with three finishes.
Esteban Ribovics is an aggressive orthodox striker who’s much more comfortable turning fights into high-paced exchanges. He throws hard combinations, attacks the body well and will switch stance during exchanges to create different angles. He’s coming off a big second-round TKO win over Edson Barboza and has become one of the more dangerous action fighters at lightweight.
Perfect fight for Ribovics to make a statement and more than likely can. Youth, power, and pressure will win him this fight and likely by knockout. He cannot give Green any respect in there otherwise Green will style on him. But if you know me, you know I’m a King Green loyalist and at this stage in his career I’m not picking against the dude even if it’s staring me right in the face.
Roberto Soldic vs. Khaos Williams
Roberto Soldic is a heavy-handed southpaw who likes to pressure behind the left hand and left kick. He’s patient until he sees an opening, then he explodes, and most of his wins have come by knockout. He’s making his UFC debut after flattening Dagi Arslanaliev with a first-round left hook in his last fight.
Khaos Williams is an explosive orthodox striker with serious one-shot power, especially when he has room to counter. He can be a little low-volume at times, but when he commits, his speed and power make him dangerous immediately. He snapped a two-fight skid in May with a first-round TKO of Nikolay Veretennikov.
I’ll be honest, I’m a little surprised Soldic is as much of a favorite as he is and Soldic hasn’t had the best strength of schedule either. However, Williams hasn’t fought a heavy-handed southpaw either. I feel a very slight lean towards the southpaw in this fight but I’m super confident in this pick. Khaos has the size, reach and experience to put Soldic’s lights out. That being said, I think Soldic can be disciplined enough to do a systematic breakdown of Williams and catch him in a counter because Soldic’s power is no joke. Should be a very fun and interesting first round.
Ateba Gautier vs. Roman Kopylov
Ateba Gautier is a huge, switch-stance middleweight with an 81-inch reach and serious knockout power. He likes to work at range, explode forward with straight punches and knees, and he’s especially dangerous once he has someone hurt. Four of his five UFC wins have come by knockout, including his last fight against Ozzy Diaz.
Roman Kopylov is a southpaw kickboxer who’s very comfortable fighting at distance and building offense behind his kicks. He throws well to the body, has a sharp left hand and tends to get more dangerous once he settles into the rhythm of a fight. He’s historically been a big finisher, with 12 of his 15 wins coming by knockout, and he most recently beat Marco Tulio by decision.
Ateba Gautier is the type of guy that I truly think could punch a tornado back into the sky. Kopylov… I don’t know what it is about him but I’m always reluctant to pick him. Plus this is a middleweight fight and this division is horrendous. I have a feeling Roman Kopylov is going to pick and prod at Ateba for three rounds to win a decision, that just seems like the middleweight magic we’re in for. It is just as realistic for Gautier to put the pace and pressure on Kopylov and send his lips into the $50 bleacher seats. I think that outcome is more likely and Ateba looks sound in his striking, and at 24 that’ll only get better. Huge opportunity to add one to the highlight reel if his conditioning holds together.
This should be a fun fight! The odds are close and that makes sense.
Imanol Rodriguez vs. Alden Coria
Imanol Rodriguez is a compact, explosive flyweight with serious finishing power. He likes to pressure, sit down on his punches and throw hard in combination, and he’s finished all seven of his pro wins — six by knockout. He’s 7-0 and coming off a second-round TKO of Kevin Borjas. On The Ultimate Fighter, he does carry a split decision loss to Joseph Morales and a first-round KO over Arshiyan Memon.
Alden Coria is a more seasoned, well-rounded flyweight who mixes boxing, wrestling and submissions pretty comfortably. He’s defensively responsible on the feet, doesn’t absorb much clean offense and has shown he can either grind out rounds or find a finish late. He’s won three straight in the UFC, including a third-round stoppage of Alessandro Costa.
This should be a good fight! Odds are close and that makes sense. I’m going to assume their conditioning is going to be solid. Coria is taller, has a longer reach, and has more experience and those things actually matter much more in a close fight, in my opinion. I like Coria in this fight and probably by decision.
Damian Pinas vs. Andrey Pulyaev
Damian Pinas is an orthodox power puncher with a long reach and a very aggressive finishing style. He works well behind the one-two, carries serious power in the right hand and is especially dangerous once he gets someone backing up. He’s 10-1 with nine knockouts and has finished both of his UFC fights in the first round.
Andrey Pulyaev is a tall southpaw who prefers to strike at range and uses his length, body kicks and straight left well. He’s more measured than Pinas and generally looks to pick shots rather than force exchanges, but his grappling defense has been a weak point. He’s coming off losses to Ateba Gautier and Nursulton Ruziboev.
I would hate to be Andrey Pulyaev. Stiff competition.
Marcus McGhee vs. Anthony Romero
Marcus McGhee is an orthodox striker with sharp boxing, good power and a nice feel for countering while still pushing the pace. He does most of his work at distance and has quietly become very hard to wrestle, defending about 90% of takedowns in the UFC. He bounced back from the Petr Yan loss with a decision win over John Yannis.
Anthony Romero is a short-notice UFC newcomer out of Blackhouse MMA. He’s 7-2 with four knockouts and two submissions, and he’s coming off back-to-back wins, most recently a 25-second first-round TKO of Yuma Horiuchi.
Taking McGhee on three days’ notice in Salt Lake City is rough. Romero trains at Blackhouse in Los Angeles, while McGhee has had a full camp at the MMA Lab in Phoenix. Neither is really training at altitude, but at least McGhee has actually had time to prepare his conditioning for it.
The move to featherweight should make Romero’s weight cut easier, but I still think the short notice and elevation catch up with him. McGhee is the more proven guy, he can keep a pretty hard pace, and I think he starts taking over once Romero’s initial danger wears off.
Anthony Wint vs. Lucas Armand
Anthony Wint is an orthodox heavyweight with a high school wrestling background, but he’s been doing a lot of damage with his hands. He’s explosive, throws hard in short combinations and is very comfortable crashing into the clinch or turning that pressure into takedowns. He’s 8-0 with seven finishes and submitted Terrance Chatman in his UFC debut.
Lucas Armand is a much bigger heavyweight who’s built most of his game around pressure and power striking. He’s 6-0 with five knockouts, tends to fight aggressively and has been putting opponents away once he gets them backing up. This will be his UFC debut, so there’s still a lot less high-level tape on him than Wint.
This is a glorified DWCS fight that really should not be taking place on a UFC card. These guys are so early into their careers. But the UFC is desperate for heavyweights, and not too often do they get a shredded athlete like Wint at heavyweight, so… I guess they’re going to take advantage early.
I’ll be kind. Armand has fought some pretty low-level competition, and against that level he’s looked OK. He’s shown decent enough footwork, throws shots to the body, and has a basic one-two that works for him. A lot of the time, though, he ends up closing the distance too aggressively and running himself into clinch exchanges along the fence.
Wint is kind of the same type of fighter, but with way worse striking and footwork. However, he is a shredded athlete with some high school wrestling credentials in his back pocket, so getting into those wrestling exchanges isn’t necessarily a bad thing for Wint.
If Armand can’t establish the jab early and keep Wint at a comfortable distance, I think Wint is just going to crash his way into the clinch. From there, he’ll pummel for position, look to get Armand down, and take whatever presents itself on the ground, whether that’s ground-and-pound or a submission. Armand had trouble dealing with that kind of physicality against Cameron Graham (9-26), who is a bad but experienced fighter, and Graham even managed to toss him on his ass at one point. Check the video above.
I don’t find Wint very impressive at all, and I think it’s only a matter of time before someone head-kicks his head into the nosebleeds, but I don’t think it’s going to be Armand unless Armand has vastly improved his takedown defense. Wint has struggled against fighters like Armand before, like Omar El-Sahlah, who took him to a split decision. But Omar had slightly better striking and definitely a better ability to defend the takedown.
We’ll see what they can do here. They’re both still early in their careers, but they’re already 30, so you’d hope to see some noticeable improvements from what they’ve shown so far. Normally, I’d lean toward Wint getting a finish in the first round, and that’s still very possible. But with both guys being relatively inexperienced and fighting at roughly 4,200 feet above sea level, there’s also a decent chance this turns into a three-round slog.
Johnny Walker vs. Mick Parkin
Johnny Walker is a long, explosive heavyweight who fights pretty loose and unpredictably. He likes kicks, knees and sudden bursts from range, and he still carries serious finishing power when he decides to open up. He’s also become a little more patient recently instead of constantly forcing chaos. He most recently lost a close split decision to Dominick Reyes.
Mick Parkin is a more traditional heavyweight who fights behind steady boxing, pressure and a solid wrestling game. He’s fairly composed, throws good volume for the division and is comfortable mixing takedowns in rather than relying entirely on power. His first professional loss came by decision to Marcin Tybura in his last fight.
How anyone can pick Johnny Walker is beyond me. He is a wildcard and heavyweight is also a wildcard division. No outcome will be surprising but thinking about this rationally, I lean Parkin. He’s more composed and he can turn this into a grinding fight and take away Walker’s wild ass stand-up game. Walker does train in Las Vegas so his conditioning could hold up. Wouldn’t be surprised if, in round 2 or 3, Walker finds an opening and we see Parkin huffin and puffin.
Rafael Dos Anjos vs. Alexander Hernandez
Rafael dos Anjos is a southpaw veteran with a pressure-heavy, well-rounded game. He likes to work behind hard body kicks and boxing, then mix in clinch control and takedowns when opponents give him the opportunity. He’s returning after nearly two years out following the knee injury against Geoff Neal.
Alexander Hernandez is an explosive orthodox striker who likes to burst into range with fast combinations and big power shots. He can wrestle too, but he’s generally at his best when he can stay aggressive and dictate the pace on the feet. He’s coming off a decision win over Rafa Garcia after previously stopping Diego Ferreira and Chase Hooper.
I love me some RDA. I remember doing a ton of tape study on Eddie Alvarez vs RDA which was a super interesting fight at the time. RDA was a moderate favorite but I picked Alvarez for the upset. Good times.
This is a tough one to pick for me. Hernandez always seems to drop the ball on the fights he needs to win and I could see it happening here. Wouldn’t be surprised if RDA can pull off the upset and I think under more normal circumstances, that would be the case. RDA coming off a knee injury, hasn’t fought in two years, 3-fight losing streak, 41 years old. Odds are against him. Also, Hernandez has done quite well against UFC-level southpaws and trains at Factory X in Colorado so elevation shouldn’t be an issue at all.
This could turn out to be a grueling fight and I think actually a really close one. As long as Hernandez doesn’t wilt when the pressure is on, I think he can take a decision.
That being said, a bet on RDA moneyline seems worth it for me.
Marvin Vettori vs. Ismail Naurdiev
Marvin Vettori is a durable southpaw who fights behind pressure, volume and a strong wrestling game. He’s not a huge finisher, but he’s difficult to hurt, keeps a steady pace and is comfortable grinding opponents against the fence or mixing takedowns into his boxing. He’s coming off a win over Brunno Ferreira.
Ismail Naurdiev is an orthodox striker with good speed, sharp counters and considerably more finishing power. He’s comfortable fighting at range but is also a capable wrestler, which makes him pretty well-rounded when he’s controlling the pace. He most recently stopped Ryan Loder in the first round.
I don’t want to watch this fight. Another middleweight fight, I think it’s gonna be a close one too.
All of Vettori’s decision losses might come into play here because his gas tank is confirmed and he is tough as nails. Perfect spot for him to Homer Simpson his way to possibly a late stoppage or decision victory.
Court McGee vs. Eric Nolan
Court McGee is an orthodox grinder who still builds most of his game around pressure, clinch work and wrestling. He’s durable, experienced and likes to make opponents work every minute, but he’s not much of a knockout threat and tends to win by pace and control. He’s coming off a decision loss to Michael Chiesa.
Eric Nolan is an orthodox welterweight who’s more comfortable striking at range and has decent finishing ability, with four knockouts and two submissions among his eight wins. He’s less proven at UFC level and has struggled when opponents can force him into grappling-heavy fights. He most recently lost a unanimous decision to Farman Hasanov.
You think Eric Nolan is going to walk in and shut Court McGee down in his retirement fight? Hell no. Eric Nolan isn’t doing anything to Court McGee. He’s going to try and beat him up early, and he might just do that, but Court is going to make this a slog, beat the shit outta him, and if Nolan gives up his back, Court is gonna choke him out.
Jacobe Smith vs. Bruce Whitehead
Bruce Whitehead is a 29-year-old welterweight out of War Training Center in Texas with a wrestling background. He’s 8-2 with five finishes, and this UFC debut comes just 13 days after a first-round TKO of Ali Abouzalam.
Whitehead is tough and has a legit wrestling/BJJ background, but this is a massive jump. He’s making his UFC debut just 13 days after his last fight, and now he gets an undefeated Oklahoma State wrestler in Smith who has finished all three of his UFC fights. Neither guy trains at real altitude, so I don’t see much of an edge there.
I think Smith is just too physical and too good of a wrestler. Whitehead may hang around for a little bit, but once Smith starts forcing grappling exchanges and letting his hands go off them, I think he overwhelms him.
